Weymouth wagers win £1 million

Every now and again you hear a betting story that warms the cockles of your heart. Last weekend troubled Weymouth were set to entertain Rushden & Diamonds in the Blue Square Premiership. Late Friday it emerged the first team were to go on strike as no medical insurance was available. Weymouth fielded a teenage team which promptly lost 9-0, but their fans, obviously in the know, helped pull off one of the biggest betting stunts in non-league football history by betting Rushden & Diamonds and taking over £1 million from the layers. The team were duly given a standing ovation at the end.

Perhaps we should note the quotation made by Steve Palmer, deputy sports editor at the Racing Post: "Non-league football is one of the few sports where punters can get an edge on the bookmakers."

A few Festival fancies

The business section in Friday's Times reported decent results for bookmakers Ladbrokes. Apparently the average spend at their outlets is a meagre £8.40; that compares pretty well to the sort of bills I get lumbered with on an average trip to the shops. In order to save money, I'm thinking I should go to the bookies rather more often than the shops. Even when my selections fail to oblige (most of the time), I can console myself with the thought that I would have spent a hell of a lot more had I gone shopping.

With that in mind, I thought I'd share with you my current Festival thinking, just in case you wanted some suggestions should the opportunity arise for you to pop in to your local turf accountants and save yourself some money in the next two weeks. You know, next they'll be telling us our money is safer with a bookmaker than a bank, but we already knew that...

Tuesday March 10th
Arkle - not a race I'm particularly keen on. My two against the field at this stage are Kalahari King (10/1, prefers decent ground) and Forpadydeplasterer (12/1).
Champion Hurdle - Binocular looks different class and has a racecourse gallop booked at Kempton on Wednesday. Having said that, he offers no real value. Two each way shots against the favourite are last year's runner-up Osana (10/1) and current champion Katchit (14/1) provided a recent break from stable routine has re-kindled his interest - keep an eye out for updates from trainer Alan King.

Wednesday March 11th
Champion Chase - Master Minded looks set to start the shortest price we've seen at the Festival for many a long year. I'm looking for an each-way longshot; the best hint I've come across so far is Mark Winstanley's tip for Briareus (25/1) but other suggestions welcome.
RSA Chase - I prefer What A Friend (6/1) to Cooldine while Gone To Lunch (10/1) is not the best horse in the race but his jumping should stand him in good stead.

Thursday March 12th
World Hurdle - Kasbah Bliss offers no value. I wouldn't write off Punchestowns but think there's more to come from Big Buck's (6/1). Lough Derg (33/1) must have an each-way chance. [Connections indicate they're leaning towards a run in the Coral Cup on the Wednesday for which LD is priced up @ 25/1 with William Hill - 23.02.09.]

Friday March 13th
Two for the Triumph Hurdle - Starluck (13/2) and Walkon (5/1).
Gold Cup - I took 3/1 Kauto before Denman's return. The vibes from the Nicholls' stable suggest it's a race against time to get Denman ready so if I'm going to hedge I'll consider doing so with Neptune Collonges (6/1).

Kempton and Newcastle

A field of twenty will face the Kempton starter for the Racing Post Chase which is due off at 3.10. Bookmakers bet 10/1 the field bar Big Fella Thanks who is priced up 7/2 favourite. Hold Em gets into this with a featherweight and his third behind Breedsbreeze in the Feltham catches the eye. He's been tipped up during the week and will appreciate the drying ground but he didn't jump well last time out at Cheltenham. Nicky Henderson's Fleet Street is another well fancied runner but I'm going to have a small each-way interest in Twiston-Davies' Battlecry who had some decent form to his name as a novice and would have a chance in this if back to his best. The yard has been through a lean spell but have had a couple of winners recently - I'm hoping Battlecry can be competitive.

Top flat recruit Ainama has been put in a short-priced favourite for the potentially trappy Dovecote Novices' Hurdle at 2.05. Last time out Alfie Flits beat Dee Ee Williams in the Rossington Main at Haydock - the second and third that day, Son Of Flicka and Mcmurrough, didn't do the form any favours when finishing down the field in the Sidney Banks Memorial at Huntingdon yesterday. On official ratings Alan King's Trenchant is bang there with a chance although it is noted the horse needs another run to qualify for the Fred Winter at Cheltenham. Nick Gifford has been quoted as saying he'd easily forgive his charge's below par run at Haydock as the horse got wound up in the preliminaries. That being the case, I'm prepared to give Dee Ee Williams another chance - he should represent a value play against the favourite and is likely to appreciate the better ground. My Triumph Hurdle fancy, Starluck, bypasses this which I consider no bad thing.

Helium has the best form on offer in the Adonis and so gets the vote while I'd consider an each-way wager on King Jack in the opener if he were priced up at 10/1 or bigger. He took a tumble at Doncaster last time out but is more likely to show his form on good ground. I'll consider King's Legacy in the bumper and prefer Ouzbeck to the occasionally quirky Herecomesthetruth in the Pendil at 2.35.

The Eider at Newcastle will be a four mile slog on heavy ground. Jass has been allocated top weight but conditions look right up his street; jockey James Reveley helps the cause by taking off a handy-looking three pounds.

Sidney Banks Memorial at Huntingdon

Some interesting contenders in the competitive-looking 3.25 at Huntingdon tomorrow. I'm not a fan of Mahonia who has a couple of disappointing runs to put behind him. Earlier in the season Donald McCain made no secret of the fact he holds Son Of Flicka in very high regard - the horse's second behind Alfie Flits in the Rossington Main at Haydock reads well. That day Mcmurrough was half a length further behind in third but on that occasion the latter-named was receiving four pounds whereas here they re-oppose at level weights. The extra half mile or so should suit both; I'm guessing connections of Mcmurrough fancy they can turn the placings around as they've opted to take up this engagement rather than the easier-looking Blue Square Poker Novices' Hurdle at Ayr. Helpston wouldn't be one to dismiss lightly either; Pam Sly's charge is tipped up in today's Weekender, with plenty being made of the fact the weather had held up this horse in his work when he failed to give eight pounds to Pause And Clause. The stats indicate the market is generally a good guide to this - six of the last seven winners have been sent off favourite. Son Of Flicka is the best horse on RP ratings and is marginally preferred.

The week in focus

Paul Nicholls was surprisingly upbeat about Denman on Saturday's Morning Line. To my mind the trainer appeared to hint that, with hindsight, he may have sent his charge to Kempton a little undercooked. It's too early to write 'the tank' off just yet but bookmakers aren't taking any chances by offering just 5/1 last season's Gold Cup winner can repeat the trick next month.

As Tom Scudamore passed the winning post on Madison Du Berlais at Kempton, he beckoned to his rivals (in particular Ruby Walsh on Denman) to try and keep up. A week later and another big chase, this time at Ascot, but there was no waving from Tom this time around - he was too busy pushing and shoving on Tamarinbleu who was left for dead by Voy Por Ustedes' classy display.

My advice to rookie paddock watchers, particularly when the going is on the soft side, is to look for the biggest horse in the field and bet it. In future similar advice offered to Eurostar passengers entering the country means they'll probably chance upon Mark Wallinger's sculpture, 'the Angel of the South'. The work is to be modelled on his own stallion, a grey called Riviera Red, but will be thirty three times bigger. Riviera Red won a Class 7 Classified Stakes at Lingfield on Tuesday.

With the Festival just around the corner, you may be interested to learn that The Raceform Update Cheltenham Guide 2009 will be available (from all good newsagents) on Friday 27th February, priced very reasonably at £2.99. Now, I really must go and order my tickets for Champion Chase Day...

Valentine's Day falling on a Saturday often leads to disagreements in the Tips' household. I know I'm the wrong side of twenty seven, but Mrs Tips is still not amused when I suggest a trip to the races as 'something affectionate we can do together' on the special day. Originally hailing from Wrexham, it appears I'm not the only one who lacks something in the romance department. This year Arriva Wales put on a 'love bus' in the area in an attempt to encourage romantics to hop on and 'pop the question' . There were no takers. My guess is the locals know full well that getting hitched is going to cost them a little bit more than a day return to Llangollen.

Ascot and Haydock

Ascot selections for tomorrow, weather permitting...

The question in the opener is whether Breedsbreeze will stay this stiff three miles on heavy ground. He jumped well around Kempton in the Feltham but I'm not convinced he does stay, so Carruthers, receiving seven pounds, gets the vote.

Alan King has worries about the trip on heavy ground for Voy Por Ustedes so I'll chance David Pipe's Tamarinbleu returns to form at a track he likes.

Wendel and Chariot Charger looks the main players in the 2.45 but it looks a pretty close call.

Over at Haydock the opener will be worth watching as current World Hurdle favourite Kasbah Bliss is expected to collect on the way to better things. In the ultra-competitive Blue Square Gold Cup Glasker Mill would have an each-way shout on his recent second in the Peter Marsh while Stow is the top-rated horse in the 2.25 and has a favourite's chance. Tarablaze represents a play against likely favourite Massasoit in the 2.55.

At Wincanton there's an all hurdles card. It's worth noting that Nicky Henderson has warned Punjabi is likely to come on for the run which makes the Kingwell look rather tricky.

Greatest jockey

On a wet and windy Monday afternoon at Plumpton racecourse A P McCoy rode Restless D'Artaix (13/8f) to victory in the Tyser & Co Beginners' Chase and in doing so recorded his 3,000th winner. McCoy, not one given to public outbursts of emotion, declared himself 'ecstatic'. Needless to say the tributes have poured in; a selection of my favourites...

Nicky Henderson: "You'll never see numbers like this again."
Carl Llewellyn described McCoy as the greatest jump jockey of all time.
Simon Holt: "He's been a regular performer of miracles for all these years."
John McCririck: "The man is a colossus, we have never seen his like before."

In an age when the wage of a pampered Premiership footballer can easily reach £100,000 a week, the dedication and humility of A P McCoy stand out like a beacon. Tony McCoy, true sporting legend, we salute you.

Displacement activity

I'm sure you'll have noticed that the latest cold snap has led to a marked reduction in the number of betting opportunities presenting themselves to racing fans. In an attempt to address this shortcoming, at the back end of last week I picked up a boxed version of Chad Valley's 'Gallop' game. For those who are unfamiliar with this product, think Waddington's 'Escalado' except it's manufactured by Chad Valley.

We've run a number of six runner races over the one mile two furlong straight course, watching several thrilling finishes in the process. There was drama indeed in last Thursday's 12.35, pictured above with the runners approaching the four furlong pole. The current leader, Plastic Showman, a 5/1 shot carrying the yellow silks, went off like a scalded cat and started to drift towards his right as he tired. The trainer had decided to put up a lightweight amateur who struggled to keep the mount straight, depsite having the whip in the correct hand.

Near the finish the horse veered violently when still in the lead, dumping the unfortunate jock onto the turf in the process, and gifting the prize to the only grey in the race, Little White Lie (14/1). A stewards' inquiry followed but the result was allowed to stand.

A photo was called for the minor placings with Brown Envelope (green colours nearest the camera) just pipping Bay Leaf (3/1) on the line. The 11/8 favourite, furthest from the camera in the light blue, appeared to have been given far too much to do by his jockey and was allowed to come home in his own time. When interviewed after the race the trainer said he thought the firm going hadn't suited the horse. The one bookmaker at the track reported there were no suspicious betting patterns on the race but he had noticed a large lump of Blu-Tack stuck to the favourite's tail as he crossed the line. The matter has been referred to the Jockey Club, although a date has not yet been set for the hearing. No matter what anyone tells you, it has to be better than all-weather racing, doesn't it?

Matters arising

Now I'd be the first to admit that this blog brings to tipping what Todd Carty brings to ice-skating but every once in a while, working on the premis that if you throw enough darts one day you'll hit the bull, I manage to get it right, so I pray your indulgence, dear reader, and ask you allow me to point out that I hinted (a mere hint, you understand) last week might be the time to strike an ante-post bet on Kauto Star for the Gold Cup at 3/1. Denman's disappointing display at Kempton yesterday has seen Kauto's price shrink to 6/4 with several bookmakers while the former favourite is now generally a 4/1 shot.

There could be no disguising connections' dismay with Denman's demise yet full marks to Paul Nicholls for coming on national television just minutes after the race to air his views. While I think it's too early to write the horse off, and Kempton's right-handed track clearly didn't suit, you can't help but wonder after that return whether we've seen the best of him - perhaps last season's sensational Gold Cup victory has shattered 'the tank'.

With the start of the Six Nations, as an introduction to the England - Italy international, the BBC ran a little preview that featured several Italian rugby players parading in their pants, much to the delight of Mrs Tips. The piece proved rather prescient as, unfortunately, in the match itself, the players were pants.

The other day a colleague of mine was on the verge of landing a touch. He'd done the homework and with a little less than two minutes to the off, he logged on to ladbrokes.com ready to strike his bet. He made his selection, clicked on the button and was greeted with this message...

So near and yet so far...

The return of Denman

With Newbury abandoned, Denman is diverted and will make his eagerly-anticipated return in the Levy Board Chase at Kempton tomorrow, provided the course passes an 8.00am inspection. He's likely to start long odds-on; here are a few reasons why you should be wary about taking short odds...

- he hasn't run for 330 days
- he was extremely ill in the autumn with a fibrillating heart
- this is the acid test - nobody knows for certain whether he has fully recovered from the illness
- trainer Nicholls has had to build the horse back up whereas last year the reverse was the case - connections were keen to run him to gain some fitness
- Paul Nicholls: "Kempton is obviously not ideal, and I would never have wanted to run him in a King George round there..."
- Of his fourteen runs, only three have been on a right-handed track - two at Wincanton and one at Exeter.

For those looking to oppose, Albertas Run would have made much more appeal on better ground while course and distance winner Joe Lively comes to this in good form and is a potential front-runner but he had a hard enough race at Cheltenham two weeks ago. Madison Du Berlais isn't the best of jumpers and Trabolgan's return in December was rather disappointing. You pay your money and take your choice - the percentage call is Denman and plenty in racing will be hoping 'the tank' does his stuff. Of the opponents, Joe Lively looks to have the best chance should the favourite disappoint but this is a race to watch for future reference.

In the novices' hurdle at 1.40 Pause And Clause is the top-rated animal; his second behind Mad Max at Newbury is good form and the longer trip here should suit. In the 3.25 Lightning Strike will be popular but doesn't have an awful lot of experience over the larger obstacles. Charlie Mann's Moon Over Miami is a free-running sort often best coming off the pace. He can be temperamental and often gets upset by the preliminaries but has ability and on a going day wouldn't be without a chance. At the 6/1 reported by the Racing Post he'd be worth an interest provided he doesn't get too worked up beforehand. Leading Contender is the top horse in the Rasher Frith Memorial Beginners' Chase but has been off the track for well over a year; that being the case, a chance is taken at a price with The Cool Guy who was running a respectable race at Chepstow last time before tiring in the heavy conditions. The shorter trip should help but the stable's form is an obvious worry. In an open-looking bumper to finish with, Phillip Hobbs' Tzora should be thereabouts.

McCoy's quest for 3,000 winners continues tomorrow with four rides booked - Abutilon (2.15), Albertas Run (2.50), That's An Idea (4.00) and Quipe Me Posted (4.35).

Points of (some) interest

Ferdy Murphy's Kalahari King won the John Smith's Race Extra Smooth Novices' Chase at Musselburgh today and is now quoted as low as 10/1 for the Arkle. At the same meeting Nicky Henderson won the Triumph Hurdle trial with Giorgio Quercus but hinted the horse may miss Cheltenham in favour of either Aintree or Punchestown.

Paddy Power has taken a particularly dim view of Big Zeb's fall at Punchestown this afternoon and now price the horse at 14/1 for the Queen Mother Champion Chase.

At Sandown on Saturday Celestial Halo beat Osana but of the two I, in common with many I suspect, prefer the latter. Osana is currently quoted 10/1 second favourite for the Champion Hurdle with Celestial Halo 12s.

In the last fortnight Christian Williams has ridden two Saturday big-race winners for the Nicholls yard, both at Doncaster - Big Fella Thanks and I'msingingtheblues. It looks as though Sam Thomas is paying the price for a couple of high-profile falls earlier in the season. Any talk of Doncaster and you immediately think of the St. Leger but you wouldn't be advised to stay in the Grand St Leger Hotel if the recent report compiled by The Times' mystery guest counts for anything.

Listening to Radio Five Live's broadcast of the Liverpool v. Chelsea match, I heard the commentator tell listeners that he'd just received some racing news - Tony McCoy did not win the 4.10 at Fontwell. For that matter neither did Dominic Elsworth, Jamie Moore, Christian Williams, Aiden Coleman and Jack Doyle amongst others. Tom O'Brien, who did win the 4.10 at Fontwell, also failed to get a mention. You can understand why the champ, still two winners short of the magical 3,000, will be glad when the milestone has been reached and business can return to normal. If the predicted snow arrives, it's likely he'll have to wait towards the end of the week before he can try again.

Denman is scheduled to make his reappearance this weekend, either at Newbury on Saturday or over in Ireland on Sunday. I'm not a great one for ante-post betting but perhaps now is the time to consider the 3/1 offered by Coral and William Hill about Kauto Star to win the Gold Cup. If Denman's return proves to be below par, Kauto is likely to shorten; even if Denman delivers, Kauto still has an excellent chance, particularly if the race is run on decent ground.

Finally, here's a salutary tale to finish on. A colleague of mine popped into a William Hill shop early last week, took a pre-printed football coupon from one of the several holders found in such establishments and invested £2 of his own money on an eight match accumulator. The writing at the bottom of the slip indicated he would collect £70 should his eight predictions come to pass. As a matter of interest, he later logged onto his computer, typed in the same eight selections on the William Hill website and was horrified to discover that the online payout would be £88. Fortunately for him, West Brom failed to beat Manchester United.

Brief notes for Sandown, Doncaster and Wetherby

I'm a little pressed for time this evening, so here goes...

At Sandown Optimus Maximus looks the one in the opener but he'll be no price; Amore Mio is the likeliest danger. In the 2.05 Paul Nicholls has issued an upbeat bulletin about Celestial Halo while the Pipe team has said their horse, Osana, will come on for the run. Only six in The Scilly Isles Novices' Chase but it's still extremely competitive. The bottom one, Araldur, is suited by the conditions of the race as he steps up to two and a half miles for the first time - connections think the extra distance will help their horse. Twiston-Davies thinks a lot of Buck The Legend but the stable is just emerging from a poor spell and their charge is probably best watched here. In the 3.10 Blue Shark was badly hampered last time when travelling smoothly and is likely to be well-supported. I see the Racing Post has priced up Hills Of Aran at 33/1. The horse was third in this last year and reverts back to hurdles after an unsuccessful try at fencing; he'd have an each-way squeak if at his best but isn't the easiest of rides. All eyes will be on the highly-regarded Killaghy Castle in the finale; McCoy will be hoping his mount Good Company helps him towards his 3000th winner.

Degas Art will be worth a second look in the opener at Doncaster while in the Towton Novices' Chase at Wetherby Will Be Done may not stay the trip and Companero just gallops so I'm considering taking a chance with Philip Hobbs' Kornati Kid.

Weekend round-up

Testing conditions at Leopardstown placed a premium on stamina in the Irish Champion Hurdle earlier today and the remarkable Brave Inca (11/4) collected the spoils at the grand old age of eleven. 2/1 favourite Sublimity proved a major disappointment, trailing in fourth. In an interview on Radio Five Live beforehand trainer Robert Hennessy was particularly bullish about his charge's chances but after the race connections reported the horse had scoped dirty.

Nicky Henderson decided not to run Barbers Shop in the Letheby & Christopher Chase at Cheltenham yesterday on account of the heavy ground. The Aon Chase at Newbury is being considered as an alternative; if the horse goes there, he's likely to bump into Denman. Teletext report that Henderson wasn't too downhearted following Punchestowns' defeat in the Cleeve Hurdle. Punchestowns failed by four lengths to concede eight pounds to Paul Nicholls' Big Buck's. The report implied the trainer had 'left something to work on'.

Here's a question - will the Tizzards enter Joe Lively for the Gold Cup?

Diamond Harry maintained his unbeaten run by taking the opener but he only just got there and looks a jolly tricky ride. The Ballymore Properties Novices' Hurdle is his Festival target; Ladbrokes offer a miserly-looking 3/1 about the horse for that race.

Over at Doncaster Malcolm Jefferson's Cape Tribulation ran out an impressive winner of the three mile Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle. His cause was helped somewhat by the fall of 11/10 favourite On Raglan Road as they entered the home straight for the final time. Cape Tribulation may have won anyway but the fall came too early to say anything with any certainty. In the winner's enclosure afterwards Derek Thompson asked the trainer for a comment and was promptly pointed in the direction of the jockey! Connections are now considering Cheltenham, Aintree and some high profile Flat races too.

Channel Four televised a bumper live for the first time on Saturday, the concluding race at Doncaster. As the runners waited for the off, Tommo informed viewers that 50/1 shot Switched Off looked very well in the paddock; the horse ran a blinder, going down one and a quarter lengths to 66/1 chance Par Avion. You're unlikely to see those fancy prices the next time they run!

Both of my regular readers will recall the anguish suffered in the Tips' household over a year ago when the BBC announced its decision to axe major parts of the Ceefax racing service. Even the Prime Minister offered me his support. Eventually I migrated to Teletext on Channel Four but, occasionally, when feeling nostalgic, I check out the racing pages on Ceefax, for old times' sake. Obviously the service doesn't compare, but imagine my horror last Thursday when the second of the two(!) reported stories discussed what action Mark Hughes was going to take after Robinho had gone AWOL from Manchester City's training camp in Tenerife. Just where has it all gone wrong? For those who might happen to be wondering, the lead story on the Ceefax racing pages last Thursday night was 'Red Rum wins third National'.

Cheltenham trials and Doncaster

Only eight go to post in the Letheby & Christopher Chase at 2.35 but it looks an intriguing contest. Halcon Genelardais is a model of consistency, the clear form pick and deserves to collect a decent prize. Of the two Nicholls runners, Ruby Walsh prefers Nozic, who is a bigger price in the tissue, to stablemate Star De Mohaison. I'm sure Howard Johnson has been working on Tidal Bay's jumping but the question marks in that department are a concern. In this I've decided to go for an each-way wager on one of the longer priced runners. Joe Lively has course and distance winning form and will relish a slog in the mud but he has it all to do to turn round previous form with Halcon Genelardais on roughly two stone worse terms. That being the case, Snoopy Loopy each way is the selection provided the eight face the starter. There's a niggling doubt that he may be suffering from the effects of several tough races. In the King George on Boxing Day he fell away badly a mile or so from home which was disappointing. The ground was plenty fast enough for him at Kempton and, as he struggled to go the pace, his jumping deteriorated. The heavy ground here will help as he's not always the most fluent of jumpers but he stays all day and the stable will be keen to pick up points for the Order of Merit; he's priced up at around 20/1.

In the 3.10 I'm not inclined to oppose Walkon, even though Reve De Sivola is entitled to beat the likely favourite on official ratings. Simarian was slightly disappointing behind both those horses at Chepstow last time but he has course and distance winning form - it would be no surprise to see him in the mix; had there been eight or more runners, he would have made some appeal each-way.

Punchestowns is another favourite I won't be taking on while in the 1.30 I'm sticking with Hennessy who didn't get a run last weekend at Wincanton and this race looks slightly less competitive.

In Doncaster's 1.30 King Jack should be thereabouts in a tough-looking handicap hurdle; he rates an each-way wager if priced in double figures but wouldn't want the conditions too testing while those desperate for an interest in the Sky Bet Chase could do worse than Alexanderthegreat who has a racing weight and has been in decent form recently.

Nibs [news in brief stories]

Such was the authority of Master Minded's victory at Ascot on Saturday bookmaker Paddy Power are paying out on ante-post bets about the horse for the Champion Chase. I can't recall a bookmaker paying out early on a horse race before.

A few fancied horses didn't appear to handle the ground at Haydock on Saturday including Snap Tie, Dee Ee Williams and Mahonia. Two that patently did are Songe and Alfie Flits. Songe has the Totesport Trophy at Newbury as his next target while Alfie Flits could run at Kelso before going for a novice event at Aintree in April.

It was interesting to hear Paul Nicholls explain that he has had to 'build Denman up' after his operation; the horse has clearly been quite ill. The acid test will come in the Aon Chase at Newbury, although this evening I note he also has an entry in the Hennessy Gold Cup at Leopardstown on February 8th.

The credit crunch is biting - Great Leighs racecourse is now in the hands of administators and the signs don't look encouraging.

Cheltenham's Trials meeting this weekend should prove informative with the Festival just around the corner - let's hope the weather plays its part.

Mrs Tips has been unusually quiet at home the last couple of days - I even managed to get away with something yesterday. I suspect it has something to do with the fact the BBC are to show all Andy Murray's Australian Open matches on terrestrial TV...

Ascot, Haydock & Wincanton

Master Minded is the star attraction in the Victor Chandler Chase at Ascot tomorrow; it's a race to savour. The current Triumph hurdle favourite Zaynar starts in the opener - his performance will be scrutinised closely with the Cheltenham Festival just over seven weeks away. On paper the Montpelier Group Lightning Novices' Chase at 1.40 looks to be between Free World and Calgary Bay; both horses feature prominently in the Arkle betting. Calgary Bay came on the scene last time out by beating Kicks For Free with some authority over two miles five at Cheltenham, while Free World was pipped at the post by Araldur in the Henry VIII Novices' Chase at Sandown. On official handicap ratings Free World is the one to beat and in addition he receives six pounds from Calgary Bay; connections of Calgary Bay had hoped to get McCoy for their mount - who doesn't look the easiest of rides - but the champion goes to Haydock instead. Free World has to be the selection. I won't be getting involved in the 1.05 but I'd be wary of Serabad who, to my mind, runs his best races with plenty of give underfoot while the booking of Ruby Walsh for Kawagino catches the eye. In the mares' race at 2.50 United will be popular as she is some way clear of her rivals on official ratings but she has never won over this distance and connections have stated publicly that her target is a race at the Festival; there's also the possibility she may 'bounce' after her latest run which followed a long layoff. The finale is a hot novice hurdle and should provide some useful pointers for the future.

Two weeks ago the Tolworth was abandoned at Sandown on account of the weather but three of the protagonists turn out at Haydock tomorrow for the Rossington Main. Dee Ee Williams was my Tolworth fancy and I'm sticking with him here - he's the top-rated horse. Mahonia was a little disappointing at Cheltenham last time while Nicky Henderson's Clay Hollister could easily improve to test the selection. Connections won't want too much rain overnight for Snap Tie in the Champion Hurdle trial where I think Songe has place prospects. The Peter Marsh looks tricky. Cloudy Lane is coming into form but isn't the biggest of horses and may struggle to carry top weight on soft ground. If I get involved I'll take a chance with Alan King's Kandjar D'Allier who is getting a little long in the tooth these days but likes Haydock and often runs well following a break. In the novice chase at 3.00 Massini's Maguire wouldn't want any more rain while on official ratings Wind Instrument is bang there with a chance - provided his jumping holds out.

At Wincanton Pepite De Soleil should take the opener but will be no price at all. The Connaught Cup at 3.45 has £40,000 added prize money and looks suitably competitive. The one at the top of the handicap, Hennessy, will do for me. On the down side he has to carry top weight on soft ground and he has limited chase experience but he's a big horse who appeals as an unexposed type and comes from a stable in form.

PG's predictions

The trouble with this game is that it's all about what's going to happen in the future. I thought I'd share with you some of the things I think we could see come to pass in 2009...

Having taken the decision to leave Timeform after thirty five years, Jim McGrath tells anyone who'll listen that he's only just discovered the existence of different types of books other than form books; he's looking to develop a penchant for thrillers and romances.

The cold snap threatens to last through to March. With the Festival under threat from frost, the Cheltenham executive refuse to employ covers on the track, claiming any decision to go ahead with such measures would make no commercial sense whatsoever.

Putting up four pounds overweight, Hayley Turner rides Barbers Shop to a surprise Gold Cup victory for the Queen, pipping Ruby Walsh on Kauto Star by a long-looking short head.

Harry Findlay walks into a Ladbrokes shop in the East End looking to back Denman to win this year's National; he wants £10 on @ 8/1. After a phonecall to head office, the shop assistant tells him he can have £2 @ 8s and the rest at 6/1. All hell breaks loose.

Kieren Fallon makes the final of the John Smith's People's Race but in a driving finish is pipped at the post by a thirteen and a half stone spot welder who originates from Scunthorpe.

Worried about Channel 4's long-term commitment to racing, Mike Cattermole decides to branch out and lands himself a lucrative contract promoting 'Just For Men' hair products.

And finally, Tony McCoy wins The Derby.

Ayr on a Saturday

Warwick's biggest meeting of the year has been called off, Wetherby has a '50-50' chance while the donkey racing on Kempton sands makes little appeal. On the south west coast of Scotland there are no reported weather problems; if the meeting at Ayr goes ahead it will be the first turf meeting in Britain since January 2nd - the going is reported to be soft, heavy in places.

The feature race at 3.00 is the Blue Square Handicap Chase run over three miles one furlong. Malko De Beaumont has progressed well this season and is now rated some thirty pounds higher; off a reasonable weight he looks sure to go close. There was money for Gypsy George before the Welsh National but he ran no sort of race - if you forgive him that effort, he has to have a chance here. Jass looks a little unconvincing but at the bottom of the handicap I wouldn't totally dismiss Chopneyev. He's getting on a bit now but he's made the journey up from Adlestrop in the Cotswolds and represents an each-way wager at around 14/1. Several commentators put up Malko De Beaumont but I'll go out on a limb, hoping that Gypsy George consents to put his best foot forward.

In the novice chase at 2.00 Companero isn't one to take a short price about; if you're brave enough to oppose, Great Approach will be of interest.

The 1.25 is no foregone conclusion but Lie Forrit showed he stayed this distance on slightly better ground last time out and so gets the vote.

The big chill...

No jump racing in Great Britian over the weekend and today's all-weather card at Wolverhampton has, paradoxically, been lost to the weather! Tomorrow's card at Sedgefield is subject to an inspection at 8.30 am. Some meteorological forecasters predict more of the same right though until the beginning of next week - and I was half-thinking of going to Warwick this Saturday where the highlight is set to be the Classic Chase. With little action on course, the main talking point is Paul Nicholls' confirmation earlier today that Denman will go for the Grand National after running in this year's Gold Cup.

Sandown's Tolworth card

Should Sandown's card manage to beat the overnight frost, the highlight will be the Tolworth at 2.40. There are only six in the line-up which could result in a tactical affair and for this reason the race doesn't make that much appeal as a betting medium. Dee Ee Williams has a solid look and is the selection; for those choosing to oppose, I prefer Nicky Henderson's course and distance winner Clay Hollister to Mahonia who was a little disappointing when turned over at Cheltenham last time. Two quick notes - the favourite has won four of the last ten renewals and the Nicholls stable has a decent record in this having won with Breedsbreeze, Silverburn and Noland in recent years.

On official handicap ratings United is the top-rated animal by some margin in the opener. Returning from an eighteen month layoff the mare won well over this distance a fortnight ago at Haydock. There must be a fair chance she'll 'bounce' here as that looked a hard enough race; I'm tempted to chance Nicky Henderson's Shatabdi who has been novice chasing; she is owned by Robert Waley-Cohen and son Sam takes the ride.

A couple of interesting runners in the two mile chase. J.P. McManus' Foreman is now with Jonjo O'Neill, Marodima used to be something of a talented tearaway when with Paul Nicholls and Nick Gifford's useful gelding Killaghy Castle makes a comeback having been off the track for 631 days. The market has proved a reliable guide in the past with the winner coming from the first three in the betting on six of the last seven renewals. If I get involved I'll have a small each-way interest in Hoo La Baloo at 12/1; Paul Nicholls' charge likes it around here, Nick Schofield takes off a handy-looking five pounds and the horse deserves to win a decent race. Having said all that, it's no surprise to see his stablemate Medicinal installed as favourite in the early tissue shows.

Helium carries a penalty but looks the one to beat in the 1.35.