Just a fortnight or so away from the tenth anniversary of the first blog post and I'm happy to report this year's Festival has proved the most profitable on record.
Shown below a record of the highlighted selections to the registered starting price, each-way wagers calculated to one fifth the odds.
Tuesday
Altior win 4/1, win - returns 5 points;
Carole's Destrier each-way 14/1, pulled up;
Polly Peachum win 6/1, tenth.
Wednesday
Blaklion each-way 8/1, win - returns 5.8 points;
Special Tiara each-way 16/1, third - returns 2.1 points;
Ballyandy win 5/1, win - returns 6 points.
Thursday
Garde La Victoire win 4/1, fell;
Whisper each-way 9/1, eighth;
Smart Talk win 6/1, thirteenth.
Friday
Don Cossack win 9/4f, win - returns 3.25 points;
Sceau Royal win 8/1, twelfth.
Total outlay: 11 points
Total return: 22.15 points
Profit: 11.15 points
Win strike rate: 36.36%
Profit as % of turnover: 101.36%
A good day Wednesday, a dry day Thursday, book-ended with a winner on the first day and the last day. Two of the four winners were available at bigger prices on the morning of the race - Blaklion (12/1) and Ballyandy (6/1).
For many the highlight of the week was Sprinter Sacre's victory in the Queen Mother Chase but, for me, Annie Power's all-the-way win in the Champion Hurdle just pinches it.
I'm sure we'll come back and do it all over again next year...
Friday, March 18, 2016
Thursday, March 17, 2016
Cheltenham Festival 2016 - Friday
The Gold Cup (3.30) is the highlight of the meeting.
The picture has changed markedly during the week with the Mullins camp deciding to re-route Vautour to the Ryanair (which he wins today, even money favourite) and Bryan Cooper opting to ride Don Cossack rather than Don Poli for owners Gigginstown House Stud.
The principals all come with reservations...
There won't be a dry eye in the house should Cue Card win; connections will collect a £1 million bonus following his victories in Haydock's Betfair Chase and the King George at Kempton. A breathing operation has revitalised Colin Tizzard's charge but there's still a question in my mind whether he'll come up the hill and stay this extended three and a quarter mile trip.
At the age of ten, he's not getting any younger either - the last ten-year-old to win the Gold Cup was Cool Dawn in 1998.
Don Cossack's Cheltenham record doesn't inspire confidence. He fell in the 2014 running of the RSA Chase and then finished a disappointing third in last year's Ryanair when sent off the 5/2 favourite. In a full and frank post-race debrief connections admitted that ride wasn't Bryan Cooper's finest hour; this race offers a chance of redemption. He also fell in Cue Card's King George, coming to grief two from home when about to make his challenge - the suspicion is his jumping suffers when the chips are really down.
That said, Don Cossack's seven length defeat of Djakadam in the 2015 Punchestown Gold Cup looks a key piece of form.
Djakadam finished second, one and a half lengths behind Coneygree in last year's Gold Cup, but he comes to this on the back of a fall in the BetBright Trial here seven weeks ago. That day he sustained an injury that required a number of stitches and, although connections maintain he hasn't missed any work, it's hardly an ideal preparation.
Don Poli is a big old-fashioned chasing type who looks hard work, lazy almost, but who can get the job done; he'll certainly stay the trip! He won the RSA Chase last year but on official ratings has 12 pounds to find with Cue Card so looks short enough in the market. Although Bryan Cooper prefers Don Cossack, his chance is respected but would increase with ease underfoot.
Smad Place has to come into reckonings on the back of his front running display here in the BetBright Trial. Alan King's grey likes Cheltenham and jumped for fun that day; I'd imagine connections would be keen to use similar tactics again. He won the Hennessy that way in November but finished some 16 lengths behind Cue Card in the King George.
Don Cossack is the selection.
In my initial preview last Friday I indicated I'd given up betting in Festival handicaps and generally my wallet had felt the benefit. I strayed from the straight and narrow on Tuesday, supporting Carole's Destrier in the Ultima Handicap Chase; that one pulled up.
With fingers burned, I'm not tempted to follow up the two County Hurdle (2.10) 'whispers' mentioned - Superb Story (second in the Greatwood last time) and Wait For Me (third in last year's bumper); both have crept in at the bottom of the handicap.
Apparently the former was touted on The Morning Line soon after that post so counts more as a 'shouting-from-the-rooftops' rather than a 'whisper' (and is now as low as 7/1 in places). For those interested Sky Bet stand out offering 14/1 about the latter who is talented but isn't the best at the hurdles.
The form for the Triumph (1.30) has been all over the place this season; Nicholls saddles five, Mullins and King three apiece.
Zubayr shot to the head of the market after collaring runaway leader Azzuri in the Adonis with previously unbeaten Gibralfaro fourth; beforehand Gibralfaro had beaten Connetable yet the former is now 25/1, the latter 10/1. Both runners sport first time cheekpieces.
Ivanovich Gorbatov was beaten ten lengths by Footpad at Leopardstown last month; Ivanovich is currently 9/2, Footpad 10/1.
I was prepared to forgive Gibralfaro his run in the Adonis and the 25/1 quoted looks big but reading Alan King's column in the Weekender, the gelding is hardly given a mention whereas of course and distance winner Sceau Royal the handler says:
"Sceau Royal schooled under Daryl Jacob last week and we were thrilled with him, he's right at the top of his game."
Sceau Royal (7/1) gets the nod.
That's it, I'm afraid; time has caught up with me. Good luck for Gold Cup day!
The picture has changed markedly during the week with the Mullins camp deciding to re-route Vautour to the Ryanair (which he wins today, even money favourite) and Bryan Cooper opting to ride Don Cossack rather than Don Poli for owners Gigginstown House Stud.
The principals all come with reservations...
There won't be a dry eye in the house should Cue Card win; connections will collect a £1 million bonus following his victories in Haydock's Betfair Chase and the King George at Kempton. A breathing operation has revitalised Colin Tizzard's charge but there's still a question in my mind whether he'll come up the hill and stay this extended three and a quarter mile trip.
At the age of ten, he's not getting any younger either - the last ten-year-old to win the Gold Cup was Cool Dawn in 1998.
Don Cossack's Cheltenham record doesn't inspire confidence. He fell in the 2014 running of the RSA Chase and then finished a disappointing third in last year's Ryanair when sent off the 5/2 favourite. In a full and frank post-race debrief connections admitted that ride wasn't Bryan Cooper's finest hour; this race offers a chance of redemption. He also fell in Cue Card's King George, coming to grief two from home when about to make his challenge - the suspicion is his jumping suffers when the chips are really down.
That said, Don Cossack's seven length defeat of Djakadam in the 2015 Punchestown Gold Cup looks a key piece of form.
Djakadam finished second, one and a half lengths behind Coneygree in last year's Gold Cup, but he comes to this on the back of a fall in the BetBright Trial here seven weeks ago. That day he sustained an injury that required a number of stitches and, although connections maintain he hasn't missed any work, it's hardly an ideal preparation.
Don Poli is a big old-fashioned chasing type who looks hard work, lazy almost, but who can get the job done; he'll certainly stay the trip! He won the RSA Chase last year but on official ratings has 12 pounds to find with Cue Card so looks short enough in the market. Although Bryan Cooper prefers Don Cossack, his chance is respected but would increase with ease underfoot.
Smad Place has to come into reckonings on the back of his front running display here in the BetBright Trial. Alan King's grey likes Cheltenham and jumped for fun that day; I'd imagine connections would be keen to use similar tactics again. He won the Hennessy that way in November but finished some 16 lengths behind Cue Card in the King George.
Don Cossack is the selection.
In my initial preview last Friday I indicated I'd given up betting in Festival handicaps and generally my wallet had felt the benefit. I strayed from the straight and narrow on Tuesday, supporting Carole's Destrier in the Ultima Handicap Chase; that one pulled up.
With fingers burned, I'm not tempted to follow up the two County Hurdle (2.10) 'whispers' mentioned - Superb Story (second in the Greatwood last time) and Wait For Me (third in last year's bumper); both have crept in at the bottom of the handicap.
Apparently the former was touted on The Morning Line soon after that post so counts more as a 'shouting-from-the-rooftops' rather than a 'whisper' (and is now as low as 7/1 in places). For those interested Sky Bet stand out offering 14/1 about the latter who is talented but isn't the best at the hurdles.
The form for the Triumph (1.30) has been all over the place this season; Nicholls saddles five, Mullins and King three apiece.
Zubayr shot to the head of the market after collaring runaway leader Azzuri in the Adonis with previously unbeaten Gibralfaro fourth; beforehand Gibralfaro had beaten Connetable yet the former is now 25/1, the latter 10/1. Both runners sport first time cheekpieces.
Ivanovich Gorbatov was beaten ten lengths by Footpad at Leopardstown last month; Ivanovich is currently 9/2, Footpad 10/1.
I was prepared to forgive Gibralfaro his run in the Adonis and the 25/1 quoted looks big but reading Alan King's column in the Weekender, the gelding is hardly given a mention whereas of course and distance winner Sceau Royal the handler says:
"Sceau Royal schooled under Daryl Jacob last week and we were thrilled with him, he's right at the top of his game."
Sceau Royal (7/1) gets the nod.
That's it, I'm afraid; time has caught up with me. Good luck for Gold Cup day!
Wednesday, March 16, 2016
Cheltenham Festival 2016 - Thursday
The World Hurdle (3.30) is Thursday's feature and on official ratings even money favourite Thistlecrack has four pounds and upwards in hand over his opponents.
Tom Scudamore rides Colin Tizzard's charge who has been something of a revelation this season having won Newbury's Long Distance Hurdle, the Long Walk at Ascot and the Cleeve.
A 'Festival Fact' plucked from The Sun's Festival pullout on Monday:
"Tom Scudamore has NEVER ridden a hurdle winner at the Festival. He is 0 from 94 rides."
Stop Press update: That's now 0 from 96; Tom Scu finished fourth on Pass The Time in the Mares' Hurdle yesterday and down the field in twelfth on Harley Rebel in the Fred Winter earlier today.
Thistlecrack looks his standout chance to put the record straight.
That said, I still think this is more competitive than market prices indicate.
Cole Harden saved my bacon when winning last year's renewal; he hasn't really fired in two runs on soft / heavy ground this term and connections are hoping the better ground will bring about the required improvement. This has been the target all year but we haven't yet seen evidence that he's as good as he was - here's the acid test.
Saphir Du Rheu, second to Cole Harden last year, was sent off favourite for the Hennessy but couldn't lay a finger on Smad Place, eventually finishing fifth. After weakening two out behind Thistlecrack in December he has undergone a breathing operation; Cole Harden underwent a similar procedure before winning last year.
Whisper's chance disappeared with a sloppy jump four from home in that very same race. The following month he went to Aintree and turned the tables on Cole Harden in no uncertain terms, beating his Cheltenham conqueror three and a half lengths.
Nicky Henderson said recently:
"This time last year he had to run in it to get him right for Aintree, but this time he's where he was for Aintree last year."
Kilcooley isn't lightly dismissed but he hasn't been seen since winning Wetherby's West Yorkshire Hurdle at the end of October and, to date, has shown his best form with cut underfoot.
At odds of 14/1 Whisper rates a value each-way wager.
According to the market there's little to choose between Bristol De Mai, Outlander and Garde La Victoire in the opener, the JLT Novices' Chase.
Course and distance winner Garde La Victoire beat Bristol De Mai seven lengths at Uttoxeter in the autumn and is the only one of the three named with winning form on good ground. Bristol De Mai has probably looked the more impressive since that meeting; Garde La Victoire isn't always the neatest at his obstacles.
Black Hercules stays further, jumping really well at Warwick on his penultimate start, and he appeared to have the spoils in the bag the next time before coming to grief at the last. His chance is respected.
I'm going to chance Garde La Victoire with Sky Bet who offer money back as a free bet if a selection in this opening race loses.
Vautour's switch from Friday's Gold Cup has upset a lot of punters and given the Ryanair (2.50) a totally different complexion. Owner Rich Ricci told At The Races:
"The Gold Cup has been the plan all season - I know I've said that - and my feeling was that if he was working well enough to run in a Ryanair, why wouldn't he be working well enough to run in a Gold Cup?
"It turns out he's not been doing cartwheels, I've been very clear about that in the run up to the race, but we felt we'd take our chance in the Ryanair.
"It's not like he's pulled a plough around the fields at home but he's not doing cartwheels like he was last year and the Gold Cup is a very hard race.
"We thought about it, we talked about it a lot. If he was 100 per cent fit, the conditions are all coming his way, the ground is drying out, but at 90 per cent, you take the chance of ruining the horse.
"It's (Ryanair) his best chance of win."
I wouldn't be tempted to take 8/11 about a horse who is '...not doing cartwheels like he was last year...'
In the Mares' Novices' Hurdle (4.50) I'll play Smart Talk against favourite Limini.
This one is top-rated and trained by Brian Ellison - those with long memories may recall his Latalomne (purchased for £8,000) who came to grief at the second last in two consecutive Champion Chases when in the lead.
I remember the second occasion particularly well; I'd bet him at 25/1.
Tom Scudamore rides Colin Tizzard's charge who has been something of a revelation this season having won Newbury's Long Distance Hurdle, the Long Walk at Ascot and the Cleeve.
A 'Festival Fact' plucked from The Sun's Festival pullout on Monday:
"Tom Scudamore has NEVER ridden a hurdle winner at the Festival. He is 0 from 94 rides."
Stop Press update: That's now 0 from 96; Tom Scu finished fourth on Pass The Time in the Mares' Hurdle yesterday and down the field in twelfth on Harley Rebel in the Fred Winter earlier today.
Thistlecrack looks his standout chance to put the record straight.
That said, I still think this is more competitive than market prices indicate.
Cole Harden saved my bacon when winning last year's renewal; he hasn't really fired in two runs on soft / heavy ground this term and connections are hoping the better ground will bring about the required improvement. This has been the target all year but we haven't yet seen evidence that he's as good as he was - here's the acid test.
Saphir Du Rheu, second to Cole Harden last year, was sent off favourite for the Hennessy but couldn't lay a finger on Smad Place, eventually finishing fifth. After weakening two out behind Thistlecrack in December he has undergone a breathing operation; Cole Harden underwent a similar procedure before winning last year.
Whisper's chance disappeared with a sloppy jump four from home in that very same race. The following month he went to Aintree and turned the tables on Cole Harden in no uncertain terms, beating his Cheltenham conqueror three and a half lengths.
Nicky Henderson said recently:
"This time last year he had to run in it to get him right for Aintree, but this time he's where he was for Aintree last year."
Kilcooley isn't lightly dismissed but he hasn't been seen since winning Wetherby's West Yorkshire Hurdle at the end of October and, to date, has shown his best form with cut underfoot.
At odds of 14/1 Whisper rates a value each-way wager.
According to the market there's little to choose between Bristol De Mai, Outlander and Garde La Victoire in the opener, the JLT Novices' Chase.
Course and distance winner Garde La Victoire beat Bristol De Mai seven lengths at Uttoxeter in the autumn and is the only one of the three named with winning form on good ground. Bristol De Mai has probably looked the more impressive since that meeting; Garde La Victoire isn't always the neatest at his obstacles.
Black Hercules stays further, jumping really well at Warwick on his penultimate start, and he appeared to have the spoils in the bag the next time before coming to grief at the last. His chance is respected.
I'm going to chance Garde La Victoire with Sky Bet who offer money back as a free bet if a selection in this opening race loses.
Vautour's switch from Friday's Gold Cup has upset a lot of punters and given the Ryanair (2.50) a totally different complexion. Owner Rich Ricci told At The Races:
"The Gold Cup has been the plan all season - I know I've said that - and my feeling was that if he was working well enough to run in a Ryanair, why wouldn't he be working well enough to run in a Gold Cup?
"It turns out he's not been doing cartwheels, I've been very clear about that in the run up to the race, but we felt we'd take our chance in the Ryanair.
"It's not like he's pulled a plough around the fields at home but he's not doing cartwheels like he was last year and the Gold Cup is a very hard race.
"We thought about it, we talked about it a lot. If he was 100 per cent fit, the conditions are all coming his way, the ground is drying out, but at 90 per cent, you take the chance of ruining the horse.
"It's (Ryanair) his best chance of win."
I wouldn't be tempted to take 8/11 about a horse who is '...not doing cartwheels like he was last year...'
In the Mares' Novices' Hurdle (4.50) I'll play Smart Talk against favourite Limini.
This one is top-rated and trained by Brian Ellison - those with long memories may recall his Latalomne (purchased for £8,000) who came to grief at the second last in two consecutive Champion Chases when in the lead.
I remember the second occasion particularly well; I'd bet him at 25/1.
Tuesday, March 15, 2016
Cheltenham Festival 2016 - Wednesday
Ten declared for the feature Queen Mother Champion Chase (3.30) with Un De Sceaux installed the odds-on favourite.
Mullins' hotpot beat God's Own six lengths in last year's Arkle and has won five of his seven chase starts, falling at Thurles when still a novice and at Leopardstown last December.
Connections were pleased with his subsequent win in Ascot's Clarence House Chase where he appeared to adopt a more measured approach at some of the obstacles. I've wanted to watch that race again but haven't managed it - my recollection is that Sire De Grugy made ground at some fences with more fluid jumping.
I was surprised to see both Sprinter Sacre and Sire De Grugy officially rated higher; Dodging Bullets and Special Tiara share the same mark. Racing from the front, Un De Sceaux isn't a wager for those with a delicate / fragile constitution...
Sprinter Sacre is now rated 18 pounds lower than after his phenomenal win in the 2013 running of this race. He isn't the horse he once was but you can argue, even at the age of ten, he wouldn't necessarily have to be in order to win - Moscow Flyer (2005) was the last horse older than nine to collect the spoils.
Sire De Grugy also falls into the ten-year-old category and has been beaten by Sprinter Sacre and Un De Sceaux on his last two runs.
Following injury the 2015 champion Dodging Bullets made his seasonal debut in Newbury's Game Spirit Chase last month. Beaten ten lengths by Top Gamble, he looked a little ring-rusty that day and there's the suspicion this year's preparation has been a race against the clock.
Special Tiara was beaten three lengths into third by Dodging Bullets last year and then went on to collect Sandown's Celebration Chase beating Sprinter Sacre six lengths. He looked a trifle unfortunate the last day when hampered by eventual winner Sire De Grugy in the Tingle Creek. Special Tiara is likely to challenge Un De Sceaux for the lead; the danger is the pair will start racing early on and thereby ruin their chance.
On the back of last year's Arkle run God's Own isn't totally dismissed; previously that season he'd won the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter but I've never found him easy to catch right.
Special Tiara (14/1) is the each-way selection.
In the Neptune (1.30) Yanworth was impressive beating Shantou Village last time out and is expected to improve for better ground. He's my idea of the winner but I won't be backing him at around 11/10. Mullins saddles four of the eleven; Yorkhill's defeat of O O Seven and Agrapart in the Tolworth reads well as the latter-named went on to win Newbury's Betfair Hurdle eleven lengths.
Of the two market leaders for the RSA Chase (2.10) course and distance winner More Of That is short enough with just two chase runs under his belt - the last eight-year-old to win was Rule Supreme in 2004. The yard has been quiet of late but has just bagged the amateur four mile race with Minella Rocco.
No More Heroes is the best horse on official ratings yet at the time of writing his price is drifting out to 5/2; he's starting to look like a value play.
I like Blaklion who isn't the biggest of animals but certainly a battler; my worry is he had a hard enough race in the Towton last time.
With just eight declared, Blaklion (10/1 Bet Victor and Paddy Power) is an each-way chance.
I've enough tales of woe about the concluding bumper to fill a wheelbarrow, including missing both Hairy Molly at 33/1 (2006) and Dunguib at 9/2 (2009) whilst at the track, and Cue Card at 40/1 in 2010.
The Irish challenge is traditionally strong; in most lists Willie Mullins' Augusta Kate shares favouritism with Ballyandy. Augusta Kate, the only mare in the race, is owned by a syndicate that includes Graham Wylie, Ant and Dec, Alan Shearer, Lee Westwood and sports agent Chubby Chandler.
Ballyandy is a course and distance winner who suffered his only defeat when attempting to concede four pounds to Coeur Blimey on soft ground at Ascot last December.
Ballyandy (13/2) is the selection. Those looking for an each-way chance at a bigger price may want to consider High Bridge (12/1) who hails from a yard that in general has done well with its bumper runners this season. On a line through Aurillac High Bridge has less than four lengths to find with the selection and better ground may help.
Mullins' hotpot beat God's Own six lengths in last year's Arkle and has won five of his seven chase starts, falling at Thurles when still a novice and at Leopardstown last December.
Connections were pleased with his subsequent win in Ascot's Clarence House Chase where he appeared to adopt a more measured approach at some of the obstacles. I've wanted to watch that race again but haven't managed it - my recollection is that Sire De Grugy made ground at some fences with more fluid jumping.
I was surprised to see both Sprinter Sacre and Sire De Grugy officially rated higher; Dodging Bullets and Special Tiara share the same mark. Racing from the front, Un De Sceaux isn't a wager for those with a delicate / fragile constitution...
Sprinter Sacre is now rated 18 pounds lower than after his phenomenal win in the 2013 running of this race. He isn't the horse he once was but you can argue, even at the age of ten, he wouldn't necessarily have to be in order to win - Moscow Flyer (2005) was the last horse older than nine to collect the spoils.
Sire De Grugy also falls into the ten-year-old category and has been beaten by Sprinter Sacre and Un De Sceaux on his last two runs.
Following injury the 2015 champion Dodging Bullets made his seasonal debut in Newbury's Game Spirit Chase last month. Beaten ten lengths by Top Gamble, he looked a little ring-rusty that day and there's the suspicion this year's preparation has been a race against the clock.
Special Tiara was beaten three lengths into third by Dodging Bullets last year and then went on to collect Sandown's Celebration Chase beating Sprinter Sacre six lengths. He looked a trifle unfortunate the last day when hampered by eventual winner Sire De Grugy in the Tingle Creek. Special Tiara is likely to challenge Un De Sceaux for the lead; the danger is the pair will start racing early on and thereby ruin their chance.
On the back of last year's Arkle run God's Own isn't totally dismissed; previously that season he'd won the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter but I've never found him easy to catch right.
Special Tiara (14/1) is the each-way selection.
In the Neptune (1.30) Yanworth was impressive beating Shantou Village last time out and is expected to improve for better ground. He's my idea of the winner but I won't be backing him at around 11/10. Mullins saddles four of the eleven; Yorkhill's defeat of O O Seven and Agrapart in the Tolworth reads well as the latter-named went on to win Newbury's Betfair Hurdle eleven lengths.
Of the two market leaders for the RSA Chase (2.10) course and distance winner More Of That is short enough with just two chase runs under his belt - the last eight-year-old to win was Rule Supreme in 2004. The yard has been quiet of late but has just bagged the amateur four mile race with Minella Rocco.
No More Heroes is the best horse on official ratings yet at the time of writing his price is drifting out to 5/2; he's starting to look like a value play.
I like Blaklion who isn't the biggest of animals but certainly a battler; my worry is he had a hard enough race in the Towton last time.
With just eight declared, Blaklion (10/1 Bet Victor and Paddy Power) is an each-way chance.
I've enough tales of woe about the concluding bumper to fill a wheelbarrow, including missing both Hairy Molly at 33/1 (2006) and Dunguib at 9/2 (2009) whilst at the track, and Cue Card at 40/1 in 2010.
The Irish challenge is traditionally strong; in most lists Willie Mullins' Augusta Kate shares favouritism with Ballyandy. Augusta Kate, the only mare in the race, is owned by a syndicate that includes Graham Wylie, Ant and Dec, Alan Shearer, Lee Westwood and sports agent Chubby Chandler.
Ballyandy is a course and distance winner who suffered his only defeat when attempting to concede four pounds to Coeur Blimey on soft ground at Ascot last December.
Ballyandy (13/2) is the selection. Those looking for an each-way chance at a bigger price may want to consider High Bridge (12/1) who hails from a yard that in general has done well with its bumper runners this season. On a line through Aurillac High Bridge has less than four lengths to find with the selection and better ground may help.
Monday, March 14, 2016
Cheltenham Festival 2016 - Tuesday
Beware the Ides of March. Julius Caesar was assassinated on 15th March - a pointer to Band Of Blood in the 2.50 perhaps - but tomorrow it's the bookies who will be keen to make a killing.
Traditionally I've adopted a cautious approach on the first day of the Festival; this year it's unlikely to prove too much of an imposition as tempting propositions look rather thin on the ground.
Faugheen misses the feature, the Champion Hurdle (3.30), through injury; with her seven pounds allowance Annie Power, re-routed from the Mares' Hurdle (4.10), is the form selection but the price makes little appeal.
Nichols Canyon beat Identity Thief fair and square in the Ryanair Hurdle.
I tipped The New One as a play against Faugheen in last year's renewal but he was disappointing in fifth and may be better over further these days.
In 2014 I supported My Tent Or Yours - he ran a fine race and was pipped a neck by Jezki but hasn't seen a racecourse in 703 days.
Camping Ground is top-rated but probably needs further and is unlikely to be suited by drying round.
Old Guard misses the race but you can't blame connections for supplementing ultra-consistent Lil Rockerfeller at a cost of £20,000; on official ratings he has as good a chance as several in the field.
I'm not going to play in a tricky-looking Champion.
In the opener I'll support course and distance winner Altior against Min. On ratings Henderson's other runner Buveur D'Air is closely matched with his stablemate but doesn't come into this with the same level of experience over hurdles. Sky Bet offer money back as a free bet (up to maximum £25) if your horse loses in this race.
With just seven in the field and Douvan a long odds-on chance, the Arkle makes no appeal as a betting medium; Garde La Victoire goes in Thursday's JLT Novices' Chase.
Carole's Destrier has his share of weight in the Ultima Handicap Chase (2.50) and tends to make one or two mistakes in a race but last time out he won the London National with something in hand and comes to this fresher than most with the stable bang in form. I'll take an each-way interest - at the time of writing both Sky Bet and Bet Victor offer 12/1 and pay five places.
Polly Peachum, my favourite mare in training, is a play against Vroom Vroom Mag in the Mares' Hurdle (4.10).
In John Gay's The Beggar's Opera Polly Peachum marries highwayman Captain Macheath, much to the dismay of her parents who predict she will not be able to keep him in funds for gambling and philandering. All rather apposite...
Anyway, I digress.
Polly (equine variety) probably missed her best chance last year when pipped by Glens Melody. This is her last race before retiring to the breeding paddocks; she will appreciate the drying ground.
Finally regular readers will know Johnny Og obliged at a nice price for the blog recently. He wants two to two and a half miles, likes to race out in front on his own and has been known to sulk if he can't dominate. Declared for the amateurs' four miler tomorrow (4.50), he has been given quotes of 100/1 which, from where I'm standing, appear rather frugal - a wager is not advised.
Johnny, Polly, Carole - it's becoming a bit like a dating agency in here...
Traditionally I've adopted a cautious approach on the first day of the Festival; this year it's unlikely to prove too much of an imposition as tempting propositions look rather thin on the ground.
Faugheen misses the feature, the Champion Hurdle (3.30), through injury; with her seven pounds allowance Annie Power, re-routed from the Mares' Hurdle (4.10), is the form selection but the price makes little appeal.
Nichols Canyon beat Identity Thief fair and square in the Ryanair Hurdle.
I tipped The New One as a play against Faugheen in last year's renewal but he was disappointing in fifth and may be better over further these days.
In 2014 I supported My Tent Or Yours - he ran a fine race and was pipped a neck by Jezki but hasn't seen a racecourse in 703 days.
Camping Ground is top-rated but probably needs further and is unlikely to be suited by drying round.
Old Guard misses the race but you can't blame connections for supplementing ultra-consistent Lil Rockerfeller at a cost of £20,000; on official ratings he has as good a chance as several in the field.
I'm not going to play in a tricky-looking Champion.
In the opener I'll support course and distance winner Altior against Min. On ratings Henderson's other runner Buveur D'Air is closely matched with his stablemate but doesn't come into this with the same level of experience over hurdles. Sky Bet offer money back as a free bet (up to maximum £25) if your horse loses in this race.
With just seven in the field and Douvan a long odds-on chance, the Arkle makes no appeal as a betting medium; Garde La Victoire goes in Thursday's JLT Novices' Chase.
Carole's Destrier has his share of weight in the Ultima Handicap Chase (2.50) and tends to make one or two mistakes in a race but last time out he won the London National with something in hand and comes to this fresher than most with the stable bang in form. I'll take an each-way interest - at the time of writing both Sky Bet and Bet Victor offer 12/1 and pay five places.
Polly Peachum, my favourite mare in training, is a play against Vroom Vroom Mag in the Mares' Hurdle (4.10).
In John Gay's The Beggar's Opera Polly Peachum marries highwayman Captain Macheath, much to the dismay of her parents who predict she will not be able to keep him in funds for gambling and philandering. All rather apposite...
Anyway, I digress.
Polly (equine variety) probably missed her best chance last year when pipped by Glens Melody. This is her last race before retiring to the breeding paddocks; she will appreciate the drying ground.
Finally regular readers will know Johnny Og obliged at a nice price for the blog recently. He wants two to two and a half miles, likes to race out in front on his own and has been known to sulk if he can't dominate. Declared for the amateurs' four miler tomorrow (4.50), he has been given quotes of 100/1 which, from where I'm standing, appear rather frugal - a wager is not advised.
Johnny, Polly, Carole - it's becoming a bit like a dating agency in here...
Friday, March 11, 2016
Cheltenham Festival 2016 - initial thoughts
This time last year Alan Lee had written several pieces on the Festival build-up and pointed out the value in the 7/2 Coral were quoting about Ireland to win the Prestbury Cup. This week The Times coverage has been pitiful.
The old adage 'Money talks' is particularly pertinent at Cheltenham - it just hasn't had an awful lot to say to me in recent years. Thankfully, Cole Harden broke that worrying trend when winning the 2015 running of the World Hurdle.
If money talks, then comparing current prices about the Mullins hotpots with those quoted at the beginning of the month might just indicate those that are vulnerable; they are Min (was 5/4, now 2/1) and Annie Power (was 6/4, now 2/1).
Tuesday
I intend to oppose Min in the opener with one of the Henderson runners, depending on the ground. If it comes up soft Buveur D'air (7/1) will get the vote, otherwise Altior (4/1) will be the selection. Sky Bet currently offer a free bet if you lose on the first race of the day and also give a best odds guarantee.
Most observers seem to think Douvan a shoo-in in the Arkle. Garde La Victoire isn't always the neatest at the obstacles but his seven length defeat of Bristol De Mai at Uttoxeter while conceding that opponent nine pounds reads well. He rates an each-way chance at 14/1.
The Champion Hurdle looks very tricky; at this point I don't intend to have a bet but I will have a wager on Polly Peachum in the mares' hurdle.
Two years ago I backed her at 3/1 and watched her win a Warwick mares' handicap hurdle by an astonishing fourteen lengths off a mark of 117; I've followed her since. Ideally she needs good ground to show her best and probably missed her chance last year when beaten a head by Glens Melody after Annie Power fell at the last with the spoils seemingly at her mercy. This is Polly's last race before being retired to the breeding paddocks.
Wednesday
I'm not inclined to oppose Yanworth in the opener and I like Blaklion in the RSA (an each-way shot at 10/1 with William Hill) although I'm worried he had a hard enough race on heavy ground in the Towton at Wetherby the last day.
Ballyandy brings strong form into the concluding bumper.
Thursday
Thistlecrack is the form selection for the World Hurdle but this looks far more competitive than the market would have us believe.
Last year's winner Cole Harden (8/1) hasn't fired this season but better ground could make all the difference; Saphir Du Rheu (10/1) was second behind Cole Harden and has since had a wind operation; Kilcooley (20/1) is returning from injury but is certainly no mug while Henderson says of Whisper (14/1): 'This time last year he had to run in it to get him right for Aintree, but this time he's where he was for Aintree last year.'
If I had to bet now, Whisper 14/1 each-way looks value.
In the mares' novices' hurdle, Smart Talk (7/1) represents a play against favourite Limini.
Friday
I gave up betting in Festival handicaps a long time ago and my wallet has certainly felt the benefit.
This year I have been tempted to stray having heard a whisper for locally-trained Superb Story in the County Hurdle. This one hasn't been seen since finishing second behind Old Guard in the Greatwood in November; Old Guard is set to take his chance in the Champion on Tuesday. Wait For Me is entered in the same race and is another of interest; both have 50 odd entries above them in the handicap so aren't guaranteed to make the cut.
A quick handicap digression here - in the Ultima on Tuesday Carole's Destrier is a chaser I like and is trained by Neil Mulholland who saddled last year's winner The Druids Nephew.
In the Gold Cup, the last ten-year-old to win was Cool Dawn in 1998 which puts me off Cue Card.
Last year's second Djakadam fell here at the end of January and required a number of stiches to his chest afterwards; handler Willie Mullins tells Weekender readers his charge hardly missed any work - nonetheless it's disconcerting.
For me, the race is between Don Cossack, Vautour and Don Poli. I'll make my selection nearer the time but in his comments to the press Mullins is fairly convinced Vautour will stay and improve between ten and fourteen pounds from his running in Kempton's King George.
That's where I am - I hope that's helpful rather than confusing. I stopped going to Festival preview evenings some time ago as you end up coming away with more tips than you can shake a stick at.
It just remains for me to say that, as usual for the Festival, I'll post a blog with selections each evening before the following day's racing.
The racing gods - are they going to look on favourably this year, I wonder?
The old adage 'Money talks' is particularly pertinent at Cheltenham - it just hasn't had an awful lot to say to me in recent years. Thankfully, Cole Harden broke that worrying trend when winning the 2015 running of the World Hurdle.
If money talks, then comparing current prices about the Mullins hotpots with those quoted at the beginning of the month might just indicate those that are vulnerable; they are Min (was 5/4, now 2/1) and Annie Power (was 6/4, now 2/1).
Tuesday
I intend to oppose Min in the opener with one of the Henderson runners, depending on the ground. If it comes up soft Buveur D'air (7/1) will get the vote, otherwise Altior (4/1) will be the selection. Sky Bet currently offer a free bet if you lose on the first race of the day and also give a best odds guarantee.
Most observers seem to think Douvan a shoo-in in the Arkle. Garde La Victoire isn't always the neatest at the obstacles but his seven length defeat of Bristol De Mai at Uttoxeter while conceding that opponent nine pounds reads well. He rates an each-way chance at 14/1.
The Champion Hurdle looks very tricky; at this point I don't intend to have a bet but I will have a wager on Polly Peachum in the mares' hurdle.
Two years ago I backed her at 3/1 and watched her win a Warwick mares' handicap hurdle by an astonishing fourteen lengths off a mark of 117; I've followed her since. Ideally she needs good ground to show her best and probably missed her chance last year when beaten a head by Glens Melody after Annie Power fell at the last with the spoils seemingly at her mercy. This is Polly's last race before being retired to the breeding paddocks.
Wednesday
I'm not inclined to oppose Yanworth in the opener and I like Blaklion in the RSA (an each-way shot at 10/1 with William Hill) although I'm worried he had a hard enough race on heavy ground in the Towton at Wetherby the last day.
Ballyandy brings strong form into the concluding bumper.
Thursday
Thistlecrack is the form selection for the World Hurdle but this looks far more competitive than the market would have us believe.
Last year's winner Cole Harden (8/1) hasn't fired this season but better ground could make all the difference; Saphir Du Rheu (10/1) was second behind Cole Harden and has since had a wind operation; Kilcooley (20/1) is returning from injury but is certainly no mug while Henderson says of Whisper (14/1): 'This time last year he had to run in it to get him right for Aintree, but this time he's where he was for Aintree last year.'
If I had to bet now, Whisper 14/1 each-way looks value.
In the mares' novices' hurdle, Smart Talk (7/1) represents a play against favourite Limini.
Friday
I gave up betting in Festival handicaps a long time ago and my wallet has certainly felt the benefit.
This year I have been tempted to stray having heard a whisper for locally-trained Superb Story in the County Hurdle. This one hasn't been seen since finishing second behind Old Guard in the Greatwood in November; Old Guard is set to take his chance in the Champion on Tuesday. Wait For Me is entered in the same race and is another of interest; both have 50 odd entries above them in the handicap so aren't guaranteed to make the cut.
A quick handicap digression here - in the Ultima on Tuesday Carole's Destrier is a chaser I like and is trained by Neil Mulholland who saddled last year's winner The Druids Nephew.
In the Gold Cup, the last ten-year-old to win was Cool Dawn in 1998 which puts me off Cue Card.
Last year's second Djakadam fell here at the end of January and required a number of stiches to his chest afterwards; handler Willie Mullins tells Weekender readers his charge hardly missed any work - nonetheless it's disconcerting.
For me, the race is between Don Cossack, Vautour and Don Poli. I'll make my selection nearer the time but in his comments to the press Mullins is fairly convinced Vautour will stay and improve between ten and fourteen pounds from his running in Kempton's King George.
That's where I am - I hope that's helpful rather than confusing. I stopped going to Festival preview evenings some time ago as you end up coming away with more tips than you can shake a stick at.
It just remains for me to say that, as usual for the Festival, I'll post a blog with selections each evening before the following day's racing.
The racing gods - are they going to look on favourably this year, I wonder?
Friday, March 04, 2016
Distractions and diversions
Cheltenham is less than a fortnight away, I've just purchased my Weekender Cheltenham The Ultimate Guide (£3.25 from all good newsagents) and new Gold Cup sponsors Timico are running a free-to-enter competition with a first prize of £250,000 - all you have to do is predict the correct finishing order of the runners.
All of which has distracted me from tomorrow's cards. Still, a couple of Newbury runners have caught my eye...
Both regular readers will know that six weeks ago Johnny Og caused me a considerable amount of anguish when winning Ascot's Thames Materials Amateur Riders' Handicap Chase at odds of 14/1; I'd picked him out as a bet at Newbury three days earlier but that meeting was frosted off and I didn't have a penny on at Ascot...
Unplaced at Cheltenham seven days later, Johnny returns to action tomorrow (Newbury 4.35) after a short break which should have freshened him up nicely. According to Martin Keighley's comments in the Weekender at the turn of the year, the key factor with this horse is he likes to race from the front - on his own:
"He has plenty of ability but needs to be left out in front with no company. He won at Stratford... but then things have gone against him at Newbury and Ascot as he couldn't get his own way..."
Of tomorrow's nine opponents, the potential challengers for the early lead are Royal Guardsman, Lucky Jim and So Oscar; Royal Guardsman looks the biggest threat to my cunning Baldrick-like plan, having won the Greatwood Handicap Hurdle on this card last year.
Three of the field - Take A Break, So Oscar and Florida Calling - are trying fences for the first time while another two opponents - Hughesie and Lucky Jim - have just the one chase outing under their belt.
I'll take an each-way interest in Johnny Og, 14/1 at the time of writing; given his style of racing, I think I'll know my fate soon enough.
David Pipe appears particularly upbeat about Gabrial The Great in the Weekender. This one has next week's Imperial Cup at Sandown as his target but it looks as though connections want to blow away the cobwebs with a run in Newbury's 2.50.
In August 2014 he raced off a mark of 140 but he was subsequently off the track for more than a year before finishing third at Wincanton in December. Tomorrow he starts off 126 and wears a tongue-tie for the first time; 12/1 is the current price if you're tempted.
Pure Vision has had the Newbury finale as a target since the autumn. Owned by J P McManus, he was beaten a head over course and distance in November. Alan King won last year's renewal with The Unit and saddles Sir Anthony Browne and Tara View.
Tom Segal has set a hare running with the suggestion that, on the eve of Cheltenham, the King stable may be going out of form. This follows a couple of high-profile disappointments last weekend (Gibralfaro and Criq Rock at Kempton and Grumeti and Medinas at Fontwell - both Grumeti and Medinas have since been retired). Graham Cunningham spent this morning at Barbury Castle - and reports no obvious cause for concerns.
All of which has distracted me from tomorrow's cards. Still, a couple of Newbury runners have caught my eye...
Both regular readers will know that six weeks ago Johnny Og caused me a considerable amount of anguish when winning Ascot's Thames Materials Amateur Riders' Handicap Chase at odds of 14/1; I'd picked him out as a bet at Newbury three days earlier but that meeting was frosted off and I didn't have a penny on at Ascot...
Unplaced at Cheltenham seven days later, Johnny returns to action tomorrow (Newbury 4.35) after a short break which should have freshened him up nicely. According to Martin Keighley's comments in the Weekender at the turn of the year, the key factor with this horse is he likes to race from the front - on his own:
"He has plenty of ability but needs to be left out in front with no company. He won at Stratford... but then things have gone against him at Newbury and Ascot as he couldn't get his own way..."
Of tomorrow's nine opponents, the potential challengers for the early lead are Royal Guardsman, Lucky Jim and So Oscar; Royal Guardsman looks the biggest threat to my cunning Baldrick-like plan, having won the Greatwood Handicap Hurdle on this card last year.
Three of the field - Take A Break, So Oscar and Florida Calling - are trying fences for the first time while another two opponents - Hughesie and Lucky Jim - have just the one chase outing under their belt.
I'll take an each-way interest in Johnny Og, 14/1 at the time of writing; given his style of racing, I think I'll know my fate soon enough.
David Pipe appears particularly upbeat about Gabrial The Great in the Weekender. This one has next week's Imperial Cup at Sandown as his target but it looks as though connections want to blow away the cobwebs with a run in Newbury's 2.50.
In August 2014 he raced off a mark of 140 but he was subsequently off the track for more than a year before finishing third at Wincanton in December. Tomorrow he starts off 126 and wears a tongue-tie for the first time; 12/1 is the current price if you're tempted.
Pure Vision has had the Newbury finale as a target since the autumn. Owned by J P McManus, he was beaten a head over course and distance in November. Alan King won last year's renewal with The Unit and saddles Sir Anthony Browne and Tara View.
Tom Segal has set a hare running with the suggestion that, on the eve of Cheltenham, the King stable may be going out of form. This follows a couple of high-profile disappointments last weekend (Gibralfaro and Criq Rock at Kempton and Grumeti and Medinas at Fontwell - both Grumeti and Medinas have since been retired). Graham Cunningham spent this morning at Barbury Castle - and reports no obvious cause for concerns.
Friday, February 26, 2016
The Betfred Eider Chase 2016
Back in February 2014 I wrote:
"Many will concentrate on Kempton tomorrow but rather than put up half a dozen short-priced losers on that card, I've chosen to exercise a modicum of self-discipline and restricted myself to putting up one bigger-priced loser at Newcastle."
I'm going to adopt a similar approach this evening as on that occasion I tipped Wyck Hill for the Eider and, bless my old boots, David Bridgwater's charge obliged at odds of 9/1, having been as big as 16/1 the night before.
Afterwards, in what can only be described as a severe state of shock, I wrote:
"I haven't bothered to go back and check the fine detail but, in very broad terms, I manage to pull a stunt like this roughly once every ten years..."
Wyck Hill goes again in tomorrow's Eider (Newcastle 2.50) but he fell at the sixth in last year's renewal and at the age of twelve it's hard to drum up confidence - he was pulled up on his last racecourse appearance in the 2015 Grand National.
Last year Miborough beat Summery Justice a length and a half with Woodford County eighteen lengths adrift in third (Portrait King ninth, Beforeall tenth, Shotgun Paddy UR and, as discussed, Wyck Hill F).
Of the first three home, at the age of nine Woodford County makes some appeal off a mark just two pounds higher. This term he has won over three miles six at Exeter in December and finished fifth behind the Kerry Lee trained Mountainous in the Welsh National, beaten just a neck for fourth spot by Saroque who claimed second in the Devon National earlier today.
Kerry Lee, enjoying a rich vein of form in this type of race, saddles likely favourite Russe Blanc but the grey has been raised a stiff-looking twelve pounds following a facile victory in Warwick's Classic Chase six weeks ago.
12/1 at the time of writing, Woodford County is the each-way selection; most layers pay a quarter the odds four places.
In an effort to manage unrealistic expectation, allow me once again to draw your attention to my comment following Wyck Hill's 2014 victory: 'I manage to pull a stunt like this roughly once every ten years...'
"Many will concentrate on Kempton tomorrow but rather than put up half a dozen short-priced losers on that card, I've chosen to exercise a modicum of self-discipline and restricted myself to putting up one bigger-priced loser at Newcastle."
I'm going to adopt a similar approach this evening as on that occasion I tipped Wyck Hill for the Eider and, bless my old boots, David Bridgwater's charge obliged at odds of 9/1, having been as big as 16/1 the night before.
Afterwards, in what can only be described as a severe state of shock, I wrote:
"I haven't bothered to go back and check the fine detail but, in very broad terms, I manage to pull a stunt like this roughly once every ten years..."
Wyck Hill goes again in tomorrow's Eider (Newcastle 2.50) but he fell at the sixth in last year's renewal and at the age of twelve it's hard to drum up confidence - he was pulled up on his last racecourse appearance in the 2015 Grand National.
Last year Miborough beat Summery Justice a length and a half with Woodford County eighteen lengths adrift in third (Portrait King ninth, Beforeall tenth, Shotgun Paddy UR and, as discussed, Wyck Hill F).
Of the first three home, at the age of nine Woodford County makes some appeal off a mark just two pounds higher. This term he has won over three miles six at Exeter in December and finished fifth behind the Kerry Lee trained Mountainous in the Welsh National, beaten just a neck for fourth spot by Saroque who claimed second in the Devon National earlier today.
Kerry Lee, enjoying a rich vein of form in this type of race, saddles likely favourite Russe Blanc but the grey has been raised a stiff-looking twelve pounds following a facile victory in Warwick's Classic Chase six weeks ago.
12/1 at the time of writing, Woodford County is the each-way selection; most layers pay a quarter the odds four places.
In an effort to manage unrealistic expectation, allow me once again to draw your attention to my comment following Wyck Hill's 2014 victory: 'I manage to pull a stunt like this roughly once every ten years...'
Friday, February 19, 2016
Rendlesham wranglings
The Rendlesham Hurdle at Haydock (2.05) has me in something of a quandry and, looking at the prices marked up, the bookmakers too; at the time of writing the best price book is underround betting to 98%.
I'm a Reve De Sivola fan and connections appear fairly bullish about his chance tomorrow but the gelding looked to have a hard enough race here four weeks ago in the Peter Marsh Chase where he finished fifth - he practically came to a standstill jumping one up the home straight.
The horse's preference for the smaller obstacles has been well-documented and we know how difficult he is to pass out in front but he has to concede eight pounds to all; at his best you could be confident but...
This evening his price is 11/4 in places (William Hill and Betway) which suggests some layers think they can get him turned over. He may be the oldest horse in the race but that still represents a value play.
On official ratings At Fishers Cross wins but connections have said the course doesn't suit and Rebecca Curtis' yard has been quiet of late.
Silsol (9/2 generally, 13/2 with Paddy Power) reverts to hurdling after struggling over fences and Foxcub (50/1) has plenty to find which leaves One Track Mind (5/2 Stan James, 100/30 bet365) and Deputy Dan (9/2 William Hill, 6/1 Boylesports).
The former steps up from handicap company while the latter has some twelve lengths to find with Reve De Sivola on Long Walk form in receipt of eight pounds.
Both One Track Mind and Deputy Dan come to this fresher than their rivals; the former has not won beyond two and a half miles so Deputy Dan gets the nod with Reve De Sivola feared.
I'm a Reve De Sivola fan and connections appear fairly bullish about his chance tomorrow but the gelding looked to have a hard enough race here four weeks ago in the Peter Marsh Chase where he finished fifth - he practically came to a standstill jumping one up the home straight.
The horse's preference for the smaller obstacles has been well-documented and we know how difficult he is to pass out in front but he has to concede eight pounds to all; at his best you could be confident but...
This evening his price is 11/4 in places (William Hill and Betway) which suggests some layers think they can get him turned over. He may be the oldest horse in the race but that still represents a value play.
On official ratings At Fishers Cross wins but connections have said the course doesn't suit and Rebecca Curtis' yard has been quiet of late.
Silsol (9/2 generally, 13/2 with Paddy Power) reverts to hurdling after struggling over fences and Foxcub (50/1) has plenty to find which leaves One Track Mind (5/2 Stan James, 100/30 bet365) and Deputy Dan (9/2 William Hill, 6/1 Boylesports).
The former steps up from handicap company while the latter has some twelve lengths to find with Reve De Sivola on Long Walk form in receipt of eight pounds.
Both One Track Mind and Deputy Dan come to this fresher than their rivals; the former has not won beyond two and a half miles so Deputy Dan gets the nod with Reve De Sivola feared.
Friday, February 12, 2016
An each-way chance in the 2016 Betfair Hurdle
Plenty of small fields at Newbury and Warwick tomorrow...
I've decided to look for an each-way chance in the Betfair Hurdle (3.35 Newbury) - the only race on the 'Super Saturday' card with more than eight set to face the starter.
The last horse older than six to win was Geos in 2004 and, with the prevailing going described as soft, heavy in places, those towards the top of the handicap are likely to have their work cut out.
Philip Hobbs saddles three with Richard Johnson riding course and distance winner Sternrubin. This one ran an exceptional race from the front in the Ladbroke at Ascot last time; headed narrowly on the run-in, he fought back bravely to secure the dead-heat with Jolly's Crack It trained by Harry Fry.
Zarib, another course and distance winner, was beaten just under seven lengths in sixth that day; Dan Skelton's charge wears cheek-pieces for the first time here and, with the benefit of his rider's five pound claim, appears to have a chance of reversing that form.
Over the years the Pipe stable have targeted this race. They have clearly taken their time with Starchitect, one of the horses owners Paul and Clare Rooney took out of Donald McCain's yard in the autumn; the Sea The Stars gelding makes his debut for the Pipe operation sporting blinkers and a first-time tongue-tie.
Blazer and Modus both have obvious chances but are a little short in the market for my liking in such a competitive event.
Agrapart likes to race prominently but was well beaten behind Yorkhill in the Tolworth while Affaire D'honneur hails form the in-form Harry Whittington yard which currently boasts a 30% strike rate for the season and a profit of £37.37 to a £1.00 level stake. The chestnut gelding is less exposed than several in the field and connections feel there is more to come.
My copy of the Weekender informs me the Ladroke has never provided the winner of this.
Sternrubin will be popular at around 8/1 but priced 18/1 at the time of writing with both Coral and Paddy Power, Zarib is the each-way selection; both layers pay a quarter the odds five places.
I've decided to look for an each-way chance in the Betfair Hurdle (3.35 Newbury) - the only race on the 'Super Saturday' card with more than eight set to face the starter.
The last horse older than six to win was Geos in 2004 and, with the prevailing going described as soft, heavy in places, those towards the top of the handicap are likely to have their work cut out.
Philip Hobbs saddles three with Richard Johnson riding course and distance winner Sternrubin. This one ran an exceptional race from the front in the Ladbroke at Ascot last time; headed narrowly on the run-in, he fought back bravely to secure the dead-heat with Jolly's Crack It trained by Harry Fry.
Zarib, another course and distance winner, was beaten just under seven lengths in sixth that day; Dan Skelton's charge wears cheek-pieces for the first time here and, with the benefit of his rider's five pound claim, appears to have a chance of reversing that form.
Over the years the Pipe stable have targeted this race. They have clearly taken their time with Starchitect, one of the horses owners Paul and Clare Rooney took out of Donald McCain's yard in the autumn; the Sea The Stars gelding makes his debut for the Pipe operation sporting blinkers and a first-time tongue-tie.
Blazer and Modus both have obvious chances but are a little short in the market for my liking in such a competitive event.
Agrapart likes to race prominently but was well beaten behind Yorkhill in the Tolworth while Affaire D'honneur hails form the in-form Harry Whittington yard which currently boasts a 30% strike rate for the season and a profit of £37.37 to a £1.00 level stake. The chestnut gelding is less exposed than several in the field and connections feel there is more to come.
My copy of the Weekender informs me the Ladroke has never provided the winner of this.
Sternrubin will be popular at around 8/1 but priced 18/1 at the time of writing with both Coral and Paddy Power, Zarib is the each-way selection; both layers pay a quarter the odds five places.
Friday, February 05, 2016
Heavy going for the Ffos Las feature
I'm considering a wager in the West Wales National at Ffos Las tomorrow (3.15) but at the back of my mind I can hear Sir Anthony McCoy OBE saying something along the lines of 'there's heavy and there's Ffos Las heavy'.
And the weather forecast looks decidedly grim too.
Rebecca Curtis fields four of the seven declared; last year her Bob Ford finished in splendid isolation to collect the spoils at odds of 16/1 with eight of the nine opponents failing to complete.
There are some notable differences to take into account for this year's renewal: Bob Ford is set to carry top weight and is currently priced up favourite; the gelding looked to have a hard enough race and had probably come to the end of his tether when falling four out in the Welsh National at Chepstow last month; the distance of the race has been shortened by three furlongs.
Stablemate Red Devil Lads doesn't jump well enough for my liking while Audacious Plan would prefer better ground (and has the Kim Muir as his target) which suggests connections may consider Minella On Line their best chance of a repeat victory.
Cogry failed to fire when sent off favourite for the Welsh National; if you can forgive that particular effort, he has form in the book - his two and a quarter lengths fourth to Sausalito Sunrise at the Cheltenham Open meeting catches the eye. He has won on heavy ground before - but this is Ffos Las heavy. And he did appear to get stuck in the mud last time...
5/1 Minella On Line is tempting but Jamie Bargary can claim five on Cogry; Cogry (3/1) is given another chance.
It's unusual to see two top-notch novice chases within twenty minutes of one another. On paper Sandown's Scilly Isles Novices' Chase (2.25) looks between Tea For Two and Bristol de Mai but the Towton Novices' Chase at Wetherby (2.45) is a far more open affair.
Definitly Red did well to finish so close to Black Hercules at Warwick the last day as he was persistently out-jumped by the winner. Blaklion is a horse I like who will be suited by the step back up to three miles here but Native River was slightly disappointing behind Tea For Two in the Feltham - connections felt Kempton's right-handed track didn't suit their charge. Harry Fry's mare Bitofapuzzle fell last time over in Ireland but poses a serious threat to all.
Back going left-handed, Native River (7/2) is the selection.
And the weather forecast looks decidedly grim too.
Rebecca Curtis fields four of the seven declared; last year her Bob Ford finished in splendid isolation to collect the spoils at odds of 16/1 with eight of the nine opponents failing to complete.
There are some notable differences to take into account for this year's renewal: Bob Ford is set to carry top weight and is currently priced up favourite; the gelding looked to have a hard enough race and had probably come to the end of his tether when falling four out in the Welsh National at Chepstow last month; the distance of the race has been shortened by three furlongs.
Stablemate Red Devil Lads doesn't jump well enough for my liking while Audacious Plan would prefer better ground (and has the Kim Muir as his target) which suggests connections may consider Minella On Line their best chance of a repeat victory.
Cogry failed to fire when sent off favourite for the Welsh National; if you can forgive that particular effort, he has form in the book - his two and a quarter lengths fourth to Sausalito Sunrise at the Cheltenham Open meeting catches the eye. He has won on heavy ground before - but this is Ffos Las heavy. And he did appear to get stuck in the mud last time...
5/1 Minella On Line is tempting but Jamie Bargary can claim five on Cogry; Cogry (3/1) is given another chance.
It's unusual to see two top-notch novice chases within twenty minutes of one another. On paper Sandown's Scilly Isles Novices' Chase (2.25) looks between Tea For Two and Bristol de Mai but the Towton Novices' Chase at Wetherby (2.45) is a far more open affair.
Definitly Red did well to finish so close to Black Hercules at Warwick the last day as he was persistently out-jumped by the winner. Blaklion is a horse I like who will be suited by the step back up to three miles here but Native River was slightly disappointing behind Tea For Two in the Feltham - connections felt Kempton's right-handed track didn't suit their charge. Harry Fry's mare Bitofapuzzle fell last time over in Ireland but poses a serious threat to all.
Back going left-handed, Native River (7/2) is the selection.
Friday, January 29, 2016
Cheltenham's Festival Trials Day 2016
There will be clues aplenty at Cheltenham's Festival Trials Day tomorrow but the accompanying worry is that, with the showpiece just over six weeks away, many of the runners won't turn up at the very top of their game - unsurprisingly, bigger prizes in March will be the main focus of attention for many.
Thistlecrack's trainer Colin Tizzard isn't one to adopt that sort of approach - as he makes clear in the Weekender:
"The season isn't all about one race, though, and before that [Thistlecrack] runs at Cheltenham on Saturday in the Cleeve Hurdle. There won't be any excuses afterwards saying he needed the run or it will put him right for the big one, this is a proper prize and he will be fit and ready to do his very best."
In the BetBright Chase (1.50) Djakadam looks terribly short at 1/2 - under the conditions of the race he is just two pounds clear of Many Clouds (aimed at the Grand National) and has four pounds to find with Alan King's Smad Place.
The opening Triumph Hurdle Trial looks trappy but should prove highly informative. I saw Wolf Of Windlesham win on his hurdles debut at Ludlow in the autumn - rated no higher than 65 on the Flat, I never for a moment envisaged him in a contest like this but after his win at the Open meeting he deserves to take his place in the line-up.
With Barters Hill expected to run at Doncaster, Shantou Village will be my play against favourite Yanworth in the Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle at 3.00. At the time of writing 5/2 is the price; I was looking for 11/4. The booking of Ruby Walsh catches the eye.
Finally, a tale to make you weep...
.
A group of us had arranged to go Newbury a week last Wednesday but the meeting was called off after overnight temperatures reached minus seven. I'd done the homework beforehand and noted Martin Keighley's Johnny Og in the third. He appealed as the outsider (14/1 the night before) in a field of six who might give us a run for our money on the back of the handler's comments in the Weekender 30.12.15 - 03.01.16:
"He has plenty of of ability but needs to be left out in front with no company. He won at Stratford... but then things have gone against him at Newbury and Ascot as he couldn't get his own way... This soft ground is ideal for him and he'll be out again next month when I think he should win sooner rather than later."
Three days after that Newbury abandonment, Johnny Og turns up in an amateur riders' handicap chase at Ascot where the book records he 'tracked leader, led 4 out, 12 lengths clear after next, stayed on well' and won at odds of 14/1. Needless to say, I didn't have a penny on.
Since then I have worked my way through five boxes of Kleenex Mansize Tissues; I think I can now say unequivocally that I've fully recovered my composure.
Johnny Og goes again tomorrow in the 1.15. Don't even think about asking.
Thistlecrack's trainer Colin Tizzard isn't one to adopt that sort of approach - as he makes clear in the Weekender:
"The season isn't all about one race, though, and before that [Thistlecrack] runs at Cheltenham on Saturday in the Cleeve Hurdle. There won't be any excuses afterwards saying he needed the run or it will put him right for the big one, this is a proper prize and he will be fit and ready to do his very best."
In the BetBright Chase (1.50) Djakadam looks terribly short at 1/2 - under the conditions of the race he is just two pounds clear of Many Clouds (aimed at the Grand National) and has four pounds to find with Alan King's Smad Place.
The opening Triumph Hurdle Trial looks trappy but should prove highly informative. I saw Wolf Of Windlesham win on his hurdles debut at Ludlow in the autumn - rated no higher than 65 on the Flat, I never for a moment envisaged him in a contest like this but after his win at the Open meeting he deserves to take his place in the line-up.
With Barters Hill expected to run at Doncaster, Shantou Village will be my play against favourite Yanworth in the Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle at 3.00. At the time of writing 5/2 is the price; I was looking for 11/4. The booking of Ruby Walsh catches the eye.
Finally, a tale to make you weep...
.
A group of us had arranged to go Newbury a week last Wednesday but the meeting was called off after overnight temperatures reached minus seven. I'd done the homework beforehand and noted Martin Keighley's Johnny Og in the third. He appealed as the outsider (14/1 the night before) in a field of six who might give us a run for our money on the back of the handler's comments in the Weekender 30.12.15 - 03.01.16:
"He has plenty of of ability but needs to be left out in front with no company. He won at Stratford... but then things have gone against him at Newbury and Ascot as he couldn't get his own way... This soft ground is ideal for him and he'll be out again next month when I think he should win sooner rather than later."
Three days after that Newbury abandonment, Johnny Og turns up in an amateur riders' handicap chase at Ascot where the book records he 'tracked leader, led 4 out, 12 lengths clear after next, stayed on well' and won at odds of 14/1. Needless to say, I didn't have a penny on.
Since then I have worked my way through five boxes of Kleenex Mansize Tissues; I think I can now say unequivocally that I've fully recovered my composure.
Johnny Og goes again tomorrow in the 1.15. Don't even think about asking.
Friday, January 22, 2016
A horse for Haydock
Some small fields at Ascot and Haydock tomorrow with a couple of odds-on favourites to have reservations about.
All eyes will be on Un De Sceaux in the Sodexo Clarence House Chase (Ascot 3.00) but 8/13 looks a short price about a horse that has fallen twice in six chase starts.
Similarly I wouldn't be in a rush to back The New One at odds of 1/2 in Haydock's Champion Hurdle Trial after his struggle to get past Bertimont in this race on similar ground last year.
Just six go in the Champion Hurdle Trial and six are declared for the Rossington Main Novices' Hurdle at 2.05. The layers have marked up top-rated Le Presien a hot favourite but this looks decidedly closer than the prices might imply. Vieux Lille, rated two pounds inferior, is priced up 4/1 at the moment - that price appears to be disappearing - while both It'safreebee and Bigmartre enter calculations.
The former has just his second start for Dan Skelton who has saddled a couple that have run below par in big Saturday novice events since the turn of the year - Welsh Shadow in the Tolworth at Sandown and Born Survivor in Warwick's Leamington Hurdle last weekend.
I was disappointed to see a particular favourite of mine, Bigmartre, beaten at Fontwell on his penultimate run - that was over two miles three. He made amends next time out by winning over this course and distance on heavy ground; trainer Harry Whittington, who currently boasts a strike rate in excess of 30% for the season, indicates connections intend to go chasing in the autumn.
Either the first or second favourite has won six of the past seven renewals but 7/1 Bigmartre looks big to me - Bigmartre is the play against Le Presien.
I was going to take a small each-way interest in Katenko in the Peter Marsh Chase (Haydock 3.15) but at the time of writing a number of layers aren't quoting a price which suggests he may not take his chance.
It's a bit of a surprise to see Reve De Sivola priced up favourite for this slog in the mud but he races off a mark 21 pounds lower than his hurdles rating. That said, in the past he has been slow over the larger obstacles and has on occasions jumped out to the right; I'm not tempted.
All eyes will be on Un De Sceaux in the Sodexo Clarence House Chase (Ascot 3.00) but 8/13 looks a short price about a horse that has fallen twice in six chase starts.
Similarly I wouldn't be in a rush to back The New One at odds of 1/2 in Haydock's Champion Hurdle Trial after his struggle to get past Bertimont in this race on similar ground last year.
Just six go in the Champion Hurdle Trial and six are declared for the Rossington Main Novices' Hurdle at 2.05. The layers have marked up top-rated Le Presien a hot favourite but this looks decidedly closer than the prices might imply. Vieux Lille, rated two pounds inferior, is priced up 4/1 at the moment - that price appears to be disappearing - while both It'safreebee and Bigmartre enter calculations.
The former has just his second start for Dan Skelton who has saddled a couple that have run below par in big Saturday novice events since the turn of the year - Welsh Shadow in the Tolworth at Sandown and Born Survivor in Warwick's Leamington Hurdle last weekend.
I was disappointed to see a particular favourite of mine, Bigmartre, beaten at Fontwell on his penultimate run - that was over two miles three. He made amends next time out by winning over this course and distance on heavy ground; trainer Harry Whittington, who currently boasts a strike rate in excess of 30% for the season, indicates connections intend to go chasing in the autumn.
Either the first or second favourite has won six of the past seven renewals but 7/1 Bigmartre looks big to me - Bigmartre is the play against Le Presien.
I was going to take a small each-way interest in Katenko in the Peter Marsh Chase (Haydock 3.15) but at the time of writing a number of layers aren't quoting a price which suggests he may not take his chance.
It's a bit of a surprise to see Reve De Sivola priced up favourite for this slog in the mud but he races off a mark 21 pounds lower than his hurdles rating. That said, in the past he has been slow over the larger obstacles and has on occasions jumped out to the right; I'm not tempted.
Friday, January 15, 2016
From Warwick to Wetherby
The best card of the year at Warwick, my local track, is subject to an 8.00 am inspection tomorrow; frost covers have been deployed and course officials are confident the meeting will go ahead.
As I won't be racing tomorrow I confess haven't done much prep work.
The Classic Chase (3.35) looks as open as ever with the field containing a number of runners who like to race prominently.
The Leamington Hurdle (3.00) is intriguing. Willie Mullins sends over two to challenge course and distance winner Born Survivor. The Weekender reports Dan Skelton's charge 'the best novice hurdler in the yard' so it's no surprise to see this locally-trained gelding head the market.
Skelton, who can boast a strike-rate of over 20% this season, plundered the spoils last year with Three Musketeers and is clearly expected to repeat the trick this year.
Of the Mullins pair, slight preference would be for Open Eagle but seven-year olds don't have a good record in this race and both Irish runners have to concede three pounds to the favourite on heavy ground.
While browsing the entries I was struck by the fact that Aidan Coleman has decided to ride at Wetherby tomorrow.
Venetia Williams has five runners at Warwick - Polo (12.40), Vivaccio (1.15), Rigadin De Beauchene (3.35 - regularly ridden by Robbie Dunne), Houblon Des Obeaux (3.35) and Opera Rock (4.05) - but sends just two up north to Wetherby - Gardefort (2.05) and Azert De Coeur (3,15).
Both are of interest.
Gardefort was third in the same race last year but remains unexposed racing off a mark three pounds lower while Azert De Coeur's fourth behind Cloonacool at Ludlow last time reads well enough in this lower grade event.
Two selections:
Gardefort (9/2) 2.05 Wetherby;
Azert De Coeur (5/1) 3.15 Wetherby.
As I won't be racing tomorrow I confess haven't done much prep work.
The Classic Chase (3.35) looks as open as ever with the field containing a number of runners who like to race prominently.
The Leamington Hurdle (3.00) is intriguing. Willie Mullins sends over two to challenge course and distance winner Born Survivor. The Weekender reports Dan Skelton's charge 'the best novice hurdler in the yard' so it's no surprise to see this locally-trained gelding head the market.
Skelton, who can boast a strike-rate of over 20% this season, plundered the spoils last year with Three Musketeers and is clearly expected to repeat the trick this year.
Of the Mullins pair, slight preference would be for Open Eagle but seven-year olds don't have a good record in this race and both Irish runners have to concede three pounds to the favourite on heavy ground.
While browsing the entries I was struck by the fact that Aidan Coleman has decided to ride at Wetherby tomorrow.
Venetia Williams has five runners at Warwick - Polo (12.40), Vivaccio (1.15), Rigadin De Beauchene (3.35 - regularly ridden by Robbie Dunne), Houblon Des Obeaux (3.35) and Opera Rock (4.05) - but sends just two up north to Wetherby - Gardefort (2.05) and Azert De Coeur (3,15).
Both are of interest.
Gardefort was third in the same race last year but remains unexposed racing off a mark three pounds lower while Azert De Coeur's fourth behind Cloonacool at Ludlow last time reads well enough in this lower grade event.
Two selections:
Gardefort (9/2) 2.05 Wetherby;
Azert De Coeur (5/1) 3.15 Wetherby.
Friday, January 08, 2016
Welsh Grand National 2016
It could be touch-and-go whether tomorrow's card at Chepstow gets the all-clear.
The time of the Welsh National has been rescheduled to 1.45 so the race can be run on the best possible ground.
There are two former winners in the field - last year Emperor's Choice claimed the spoils off a mark of 131 but goes off 141 here.
Mountainous appears to have been given every chance starting off the same mark he won off in 2013. Kerry Lee's gelding ran an eye-catching trial last time when finishing fourth beaten seven lengths in the London National at Sandown.
I've scanned the declarations for a horse carrying less than 11-0 that will will handle heavy ground and stay the trip - Bob Ford fits the bill and his style of racing is suited to this course.
Granted, he has been pulled up a number of times but I'm hoping he can repeat his performance in the West Wales National last January...
Generally available at 16/1 Bob Ford is the each-way selection; most layers offer a quarter the odds four places.
The time of the Welsh National has been rescheduled to 1.45 so the race can be run on the best possible ground.
There are two former winners in the field - last year Emperor's Choice claimed the spoils off a mark of 131 but goes off 141 here.
Mountainous appears to have been given every chance starting off the same mark he won off in 2013. Kerry Lee's gelding ran an eye-catching trial last time when finishing fourth beaten seven lengths in the London National at Sandown.
I've scanned the declarations for a horse carrying less than 11-0 that will will handle heavy ground and stay the trip - Bob Ford fits the bill and his style of racing is suited to this course.
Granted, he has been pulled up a number of times but I'm hoping he can repeat his performance in the West Wales National last January...
Generally available at 16/1 Bob Ford is the each-way selection; most layers offer a quarter the odds four places.
Friday, January 01, 2016
Three selections for Sandown's Tolworth meeting 2016
Quick picks from tomorrow's Sandown card...
Just five declared for the Tolworth Hurdle at 2.25. Willie Mullins sends over Yorkhill who at this stage wouldn't be the yard's leading light but he's likely to start a short-priced favourite.
Nicky Henderson boasts a good record in this event winning five of the last six renewals. Four weeks ago O O Seven beat stablemate Premier Bond (winner since) over course and distance; rated 145 and available at 4/1 generally, O O Seven represents a value wager against the favourite.
Welsh Shadow from Dan Skelton's yard isn't readily dismissed. Beaten by Yarnworth on his penultimate run, he improved next time to win a listed event at Haydock. Connections rate this one highly and have indicated there is 'more to come'.
2013 Tolworth winner Melodic Rendezvous reverts to handicap company in the finale; at 13/2 he has to be worth an interest.
Finally my favourite mare in training, Polly Peachum, goes in the mares' listed hurdle at 12.40.
Polly hasn't shown her very best form on heavy ground which is a concern but the shorter trip here may help. At the weights she's the best horse in the field; priced up at 4/1 with Paddy Power Polly Peachum represents a play against the Mullins-trained favourite Gitane Du Berlais.
Just five declared for the Tolworth Hurdle at 2.25. Willie Mullins sends over Yorkhill who at this stage wouldn't be the yard's leading light but he's likely to start a short-priced favourite.
Nicky Henderson boasts a good record in this event winning five of the last six renewals. Four weeks ago O O Seven beat stablemate Premier Bond (winner since) over course and distance; rated 145 and available at 4/1 generally, O O Seven represents a value wager against the favourite.
Welsh Shadow from Dan Skelton's yard isn't readily dismissed. Beaten by Yarnworth on his penultimate run, he improved next time to win a listed event at Haydock. Connections rate this one highly and have indicated there is 'more to come'.
2013 Tolworth winner Melodic Rendezvous reverts to handicap company in the finale; at 13/2 he has to be worth an interest.
Finally my favourite mare in training, Polly Peachum, goes in the mares' listed hurdle at 12.40.
Polly hasn't shown her very best form on heavy ground which is a concern but the shorter trip here may help. At the weights she's the best horse in the field; priced up at 4/1 with Paddy Power Polly Peachum represents a play against the Mullins-trained favourite Gitane Du Berlais.
Thursday, December 24, 2015
Each-way value in 2015 King George?
In my opinion the best each-way value in this year's King George VI Chase at Kempton is previous winner Silviniaco Conti - 9/1 with Ladbrokes, Coral and William Hill.
Happy Christmas to all readers!
Happy Christmas to all readers!
Friday, December 18, 2015
Ascot's Long Walk Hurdle 2015
After a few Christmas beverages, I confess I haven't studied the form as closely as I should have...
Reve De Sivola bids to win Ascot's Long Walk Hurdle for the fourth consecutive time. Beaten a neck by Saphir Du Rheu in the Cleeve Hurdle last January, he meets that opponent four pounds better off here. Saphir Du Rheu is reverting to hurdles after finishing fifth in the Hennessy last month.
Connections thought Thistlecrack would need the run at Newbury three weeks ago but he still won well beating Deputy Dan six lengths. The second tries again four pounds worse at the weights having never won beyond two miles five.
Thistlecrack is open to improvement and probably the percentage call but Reve De Sivola has scored twice for the blog in this particular race; Reve De Sivola (9/2) gets the nod - further rain would help the cause.
In the Silver Cup at 3.00 I shall keep an eye on Katenko after 14 months on the sidelines. Venetia Williams' charge was second in this race in 2012 and won off this mark at Cheltenham in January 2013. Stable jockey Aidan Coleman takes the ride prefering Katenko to the apparently out-of-form Houblon Des Obeaux who came home ninth in the Hennessy last time.
Reve De Sivola bids to win Ascot's Long Walk Hurdle for the fourth consecutive time. Beaten a neck by Saphir Du Rheu in the Cleeve Hurdle last January, he meets that opponent four pounds better off here. Saphir Du Rheu is reverting to hurdles after finishing fifth in the Hennessy last month.
Connections thought Thistlecrack would need the run at Newbury three weeks ago but he still won well beating Deputy Dan six lengths. The second tries again four pounds worse at the weights having never won beyond two miles five.
Thistlecrack is open to improvement and probably the percentage call but Reve De Sivola has scored twice for the blog in this particular race; Reve De Sivola (9/2) gets the nod - further rain would help the cause.
In the Silver Cup at 3.00 I shall keep an eye on Katenko after 14 months on the sidelines. Venetia Williams' charge was second in this race in 2012 and won off this mark at Cheltenham in January 2013. Stable jockey Aidan Coleman takes the ride prefering Katenko to the apparently out-of-form Houblon Des Obeaux who came home ninth in the Hennessy last time.
Friday, December 11, 2015
A chance at Cheltenham's International meeting 2015
I'm suffering from a certain sense of deja vu with six in tomorrow's Caspian Caviar Gold Cup (Cheltenham 1.50) having competed in the Paddy Power Gold Cup four weeks ago.
Blog selection Buywise was a fast-finishing second to Annacotty that day but I'm not tempted to revisit the form. Tomorrow's race is run over the new (rather than old) course - five of the first six were separated by less than seven lengths last time.
Instead the Albert Bartlett at 2.25 has caught my attention.
Hot favourite Unowhatimeanharry is potentially vulnerable having been pulled up on his only previous effort beyond two miles five; I note no horse older than six has won this in the past ten years.
The trip could yet cause a problem for one or two others in the field. Ennistown, rated 99 and a winner over ten furlongs on the Flat, will see his stamina tested while Justanothermuddle races beyond two miles three for the first time.
Two with form at this distance and beyond are Net Work Rouge and Ballycross; the former beat the latter some seven lengths over three miles two furlongs at Warwick the last day. Kim Bailey's charge is weighted to confirm placings here but Ballycross is less exposed - the difference layers offer in their current pricing doesn't reflect that form with Net Work Rouge available at 9/2 while Ballycross appears unconsidered at 25/1 with Paddy Power.
Connections have taken their time with Final Nudge who lost his confidence after a fall in a point-to- point back in 2012. That patience seems to be paying dividends now - Final Nudge boasts two wins in November including one over two miles five at Wincanton on heavy ground.
Colin Tizzard's West Approach completes the line-up; a half brother to Thistlecrack, he's not dismissed lightly and has been nibbled at in the market.
On ratings Net Work Rouge has two pounds to find with the Harry Fry horse; at 9/2 Net Work Rouge gets the nod - 25/1 Ballycross looks too big.
Blog selection Buywise was a fast-finishing second to Annacotty that day but I'm not tempted to revisit the form. Tomorrow's race is run over the new (rather than old) course - five of the first six were separated by less than seven lengths last time.
Instead the Albert Bartlett at 2.25 has caught my attention.
Hot favourite Unowhatimeanharry is potentially vulnerable having been pulled up on his only previous effort beyond two miles five; I note no horse older than six has won this in the past ten years.
The trip could yet cause a problem for one or two others in the field. Ennistown, rated 99 and a winner over ten furlongs on the Flat, will see his stamina tested while Justanothermuddle races beyond two miles three for the first time.
Two with form at this distance and beyond are Net Work Rouge and Ballycross; the former beat the latter some seven lengths over three miles two furlongs at Warwick the last day. Kim Bailey's charge is weighted to confirm placings here but Ballycross is less exposed - the difference layers offer in their current pricing doesn't reflect that form with Net Work Rouge available at 9/2 while Ballycross appears unconsidered at 25/1 with Paddy Power.
Connections have taken their time with Final Nudge who lost his confidence after a fall in a point-to- point back in 2012. That patience seems to be paying dividends now - Final Nudge boasts two wins in November including one over two miles five at Wincanton on heavy ground.
Colin Tizzard's West Approach completes the line-up; a half brother to Thistlecrack, he's not dismissed lightly and has been nibbled at in the market.
On ratings Net Work Rouge has two pounds to find with the Harry Fry horse; at 9/2 Net Work Rouge gets the nod - 25/1 Ballycross looks too big.
Friday, December 04, 2015
Long distance information
Briefly, some each-way selections for some of tomorrow's long distance races...
Saint Are rates the each-way wager in the Becher Chase (1.40 Aintree). Tom George's charge was third in this last year before going on to finish second in the Grand National behind Many Clouds. Sixth in the Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase at Cheltenham three weeks ago, he should strip fitter here and is a 9/1 chance with most layers at the time of writing.
Carole's Destrier looks to have an obvious chance in the London National (Sandown 3.35). His fifth behind Drop Out Joe in the Badger Ales Trophy last time caught my eye and, unfortunately, everyone else's too! He's currently priced up 7/1 favourite; further rain wouldn't help the cause.
Over at Chepstow I'm tempted to take the chance on Victors Serenade in the Welsh National Trial (2.30). His form figures make for grim reading but in a recent Weekender stable tour interview handler Anthony Honeyball said:
"He ran four shockers last season after winning a decent handicap chase at Chepstow and that showed us that he needs to be fresh these days following his bad injury."
Given those awful form figures, the layers don't appear to be taking too many chances quoting prices between 11/2 and 8/1; I was looking for 10/1 or bigger.
Postscript
On the same card in the following race (Chepstow 3.05) Venetia Williams' Elenika is certainly worth a second look. After a break of more than 18 months off the track, the grey ran a fine race from the front before tiring and coming to grief at the last at Wetherby three weeks ago. This five runner event will be run on a course that suits the gelding's style of racing - 4/1 is on offer.
Saint Are rates the each-way wager in the Becher Chase (1.40 Aintree). Tom George's charge was third in this last year before going on to finish second in the Grand National behind Many Clouds. Sixth in the Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase at Cheltenham three weeks ago, he should strip fitter here and is a 9/1 chance with most layers at the time of writing.
Carole's Destrier looks to have an obvious chance in the London National (Sandown 3.35). His fifth behind Drop Out Joe in the Badger Ales Trophy last time caught my eye and, unfortunately, everyone else's too! He's currently priced up 7/1 favourite; further rain wouldn't help the cause.
Over at Chepstow I'm tempted to take the chance on Victors Serenade in the Welsh National Trial (2.30). His form figures make for grim reading but in a recent Weekender stable tour interview handler Anthony Honeyball said:
"He ran four shockers last season after winning a decent handicap chase at Chepstow and that showed us that he needs to be fresh these days following his bad injury."
Given those awful form figures, the layers don't appear to be taking too many chances quoting prices between 11/2 and 8/1; I was looking for 10/1 or bigger.
Postscript
On the same card in the following race (Chepstow 3.05) Venetia Williams' Elenika is certainly worth a second look. After a break of more than 18 months off the track, the grey ran a fine race from the front before tiring and coming to grief at the last at Wetherby three weeks ago. This five runner event will be run on a course that suits the gelding's style of racing - 4/1 is on offer.
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