I'll post comments on the first day's card tomorrow but in the meantime there's this.
At 6.55% Ferdy Murphy's strike rate so far this season isn't anything to shout about but we know Murphy regularly targets the Festival; as the RP Cheltenham Festival Guide points out, he has returned a profit at this meeting on five occasions in the past six years and since 2003 33% of his runners over fences have finished in the top four. Six recent winners include You're Special (33/1) and Hot Weld (33/1) in 2006, Joe's Edge (50/1) and L'Antartique (20/1) in 2007 and Poker De Sivola (14/1) in 2010.
Among the entries - De Boitron in the Grand Annual, Divers in the Byrne Plate (McCoy booked), Going Wrong in the Pulteney (Davy Russell) and Kalahari King in the Ryanair.
John Ferguson has made quite an impression in this his first season handling hurdlers. A recent interview saw him put up Cape Dutch in one of the handicaps as his best chance of a winner. New Year's Eve is prominent in the betting for the bumper with the booking of Barry Geraghty catching the eye. However the RP's Cheltenham Festival Guide thinks Population a better prospect ('...Population will be the best of British going into the race'), but I've read somewhere that one is heading to Aintree - intriguingly at this stage Population holds an entry in a Huntingdon bumper on the Wednesday with Jack Quinlan already jocked up. Ambion Wood's win at Sandown yesterday paid a compliment to Cotton Mill (entries in the Neptune and Albert Bartlett) while Asaid (Geraghty again) has an entry in the Triumph.
There's not long to wait now... ;)
Sunday, March 11, 2012
Friday, March 09, 2012
Dreaming of winners
The Festival is just around the corner and you just couldn't have dreamt it.
In the past week or so at least two commentators, ATR presenter Matt Chapman and former Raceform editor Bernie Ford, have composed a compelling case for the defence; that is the four defending champions, namely Hurricane Fly, Sizing Europe, Big Buck's and Long Run, successfully retaining their crowns.
And Cheltenham MD Edward Gillespie was forced to defend the first day's card with three favourites - Sprinter Sacre, Hurricane Fly and Quevega - looking likely to start at very cramped odds.
To put the top hat on it all, my wife has started to dream winners. Except she didn't have the good grace to tell me beforehand that she'd started. Mrs Tips woke this morning saying she had just dreamt that Sam Waley-Cohen had fallen off Long Run on the way to post - 'I knew it was him because of those ghastly colours.' Spooky.
Sensing the slightest hint of an opportunity, I enquired what had won the race. Clearly in that all-too-familiar Proustian penumbra between waking and sleeping, Mrs T. replied along the lines of 'something with the word "rum" in it.' Naturally I thought she was off on one again, as is her wont, as everyone knows none of the remaining Gold Cup entries contains any semblance of the word rum. So I thought no more of it until the result of this afternoon's 3.40 hunter chase at Leicester flashed up on screen. First past the post was Rumbury Grey, trained by one S Flook and ridden by amateur Mr R Jarrett claiming five, returned at odds of 14/1.
Makes you wonder why you bother, doesn't it?
Still, I am wondering whether to ask William Hill what odds they'll give me about Sam Waley-Cohen being thrown on the way to post for this year's Gold Cup. And I've started to question the hearing as well, which isn't what it once was - did she say 'rum' or did she say 'run'? The irony is I've been pretending I couldn't hear her properly for years... I've asked but she has no recollection whatsoever of our early morning conversation.
Anyway, here's an update on some of the Festival horses I'd previously indicated I was dreaming about. In the past horses I've dreamt about generally don't win.
Arkle - Cue Card is still on track but the defection of Peddlers Cross has taken something away. Cue Card is likely to race from the front and I'm put off by the stat that no horse has made all to win this in the past decade (and possibly to as far back as 1988?) Sprinter Sacre is a formidable-looking opponent.
Champion Hurdle - Oscars Well makes some each-way appeal, as does Overturn (25/1) who was well-touted at Haydock's Festival preview evening.
RSA Chase - Invictus has been declared a non-runner.
Champion bumper - The booking of Barry Geraghty to ride New Year's Eve catches the eye but both that one and Royal Guardsman are short enough in the market now. Yesterday Peter Bowen helpfully pointed out that Sir Johnson had Royal Guardsman seven and a half lengths behind at Aintree in October while conceding seven pounds. I've taken the hint and backed Sir Johnson at 20/1.
Gold Cup - Kauto Star delighted connections in a gallop after racing at Wincanton earlier today and is rated '95% certain' to line up; a final decision will be taken on Monday. The Giant Bolster comes with risks attached but 66/1 struck me as reasonable each-way value so I struck a small wager.
As always, more detailed postings on Festival races will be available nearer the time. In the meantime, I'm still living the dream...
In the past week or so at least two commentators, ATR presenter Matt Chapman and former Raceform editor Bernie Ford, have composed a compelling case for the defence; that is the four defending champions, namely Hurricane Fly, Sizing Europe, Big Buck's and Long Run, successfully retaining their crowns.
And Cheltenham MD Edward Gillespie was forced to defend the first day's card with three favourites - Sprinter Sacre, Hurricane Fly and Quevega - looking likely to start at very cramped odds.
To put the top hat on it all, my wife has started to dream winners. Except she didn't have the good grace to tell me beforehand that she'd started. Mrs Tips woke this morning saying she had just dreamt that Sam Waley-Cohen had fallen off Long Run on the way to post - 'I knew it was him because of those ghastly colours.' Spooky.
Sensing the slightest hint of an opportunity, I enquired what had won the race. Clearly in that all-too-familiar Proustian penumbra between waking and sleeping, Mrs T. replied along the lines of 'something with the word "rum" in it.' Naturally I thought she was off on one again, as is her wont, as everyone knows none of the remaining Gold Cup entries contains any semblance of the word rum. So I thought no more of it until the result of this afternoon's 3.40 hunter chase at Leicester flashed up on screen. First past the post was Rumbury Grey, trained by one S Flook and ridden by amateur Mr R Jarrett claiming five, returned at odds of 14/1.
Makes you wonder why you bother, doesn't it?
Still, I am wondering whether to ask William Hill what odds they'll give me about Sam Waley-Cohen being thrown on the way to post for this year's Gold Cup. And I've started to question the hearing as well, which isn't what it once was - did she say 'rum' or did she say 'run'? The irony is I've been pretending I couldn't hear her properly for years... I've asked but she has no recollection whatsoever of our early morning conversation.
Anyway, here's an update on some of the Festival horses I'd previously indicated I was dreaming about. In the past horses I've dreamt about generally don't win.
Arkle - Cue Card is still on track but the defection of Peddlers Cross has taken something away. Cue Card is likely to race from the front and I'm put off by the stat that no horse has made all to win this in the past decade (and possibly to as far back as 1988?) Sprinter Sacre is a formidable-looking opponent.
Champion Hurdle - Oscars Well makes some each-way appeal, as does Overturn (25/1) who was well-touted at Haydock's Festival preview evening.
RSA Chase - Invictus has been declared a non-runner.
Champion bumper - The booking of Barry Geraghty to ride New Year's Eve catches the eye but both that one and Royal Guardsman are short enough in the market now. Yesterday Peter Bowen helpfully pointed out that Sir Johnson had Royal Guardsman seven and a half lengths behind at Aintree in October while conceding seven pounds. I've taken the hint and backed Sir Johnson at 20/1.
Gold Cup - Kauto Star delighted connections in a gallop after racing at Wincanton earlier today and is rated '95% certain' to line up; a final decision will be taken on Monday. The Giant Bolster comes with risks attached but 66/1 struck me as reasonable each-way value so I struck a small wager.
As always, more detailed postings on Festival races will be available nearer the time. In the meantime, I'm still living the dream...
Friday, March 02, 2012
The Coral 2012 Cheltenham Festival preview evening at Haydock
Over the years, in very general terms, I've tended to give Festival preview evenings something of a wide berth on the grounds that you end up coming away with more tips than you can shake a stick at.
This year has been different on two counts. Firstly, I received a kind invitation to attend the Haydock event from sponsors Coral and secondly, given the form in the book, a surfeit of tips for the Championship races looked rather unlikely beforehand.
The panel, chaired in turn by AtTheRaces presenter Matt Chapman [MC] and Mick Fitzgerald [MF], consisted of Richard Johnson [RJ], Niall Hannity [NH], Simon Clare [SC from Coral Bookmakers] and Jason Maguire [JM] who, apparently, displayed admirable restraint on learning his name had been misspelt in the souvenir programme... And, more or less, unanimous the panel were in their selections for the 'big four': Hurricane Fly in the Champion Hurdle; Sizing Europe for the Champion Chase; Big Buck's the World Hurdle and Long Run the Gold Cup following news of Kauto Star's 'pretty awful fall' on the Ditcheat gallops last week.
Matt Chapman's stentorian style (YeeeHaaa!) wouldn't necessarily have appealed to all patrons present but his piece in the programme was particularly pertinent - we hardly need preview nights as 'it all looks so easy...'
Of course, such thinking is dangerous and, where horses are concerned, nothing can ever be described as 'easy' otherwise we'd all have large amounts of cash in the bank. Still, the point Matt made is that he feels layers are 'wrong' to think they'll get a result from the big four; if an upset were to occur, going on past results, it's most likely to come in the Gold Cup.
Having arrived before most of the organisers, I had plenty of time to check out the lie of the land, get to know fellow bloggers and then tuck in to the slap-up meal. The event, somewhat delayed at the start, kicked off with a live phone call on a somewhat intermittent line to Nicky Henderson.
The news from Seven Barrows was that plenty of schooling would take place this weekend with AP riding, amongst others, Darlan and Barry Geraghty on board Simonsig. It was reported Geraghty is particularly keen that Simonsig goes for the Neptune on Wednesday rather than the Supreme. Connections felt Binocular was back to something like his best the last day at Wincanton (although Paul Nicholls felt Celestial Halo had not run to his mark) and will not be schooled. The biggest word was for Sprinter Sacre in the Arkle, described by his handler as a horse 'with tremendous presence' who 'likes showing off'. The trainer rates this one his best chance at the meeting but realised even money about one in a novice chase at the Festival wouldn't appeal to everyone so he put up Triolo D'Alene 'down in the handicaps'. This one is currently priced 7/1 favourite for the final race on the opening day but is also quoted 14/1 for Thursday's Byrne Plate - now, the line wasn't the best, but my understanding was Nicky had said he was in the Byrne, but I could be mistaken.
Other tips for the Supreme: SC - Darlan; JM Cinders And Ashhes; NH Sous Les Cieux; RJ Colour Squadron.
The panel sold the Arkle as possibly the race of the whole meeting. Having three rated in the 160s, (Sprinter Sacre 161, Peddlers Cross 160, Al Ferof 160) BHA handicapper Phil Smith considers this one of the best renewals in recent years. With Cue Card likely to make a strong gallop, JM indicated Peddlers Cross & co. will be out to get Sprinter Sacre off the bridle, pointing out the horse never came up the hill when finishing third in the Supreme last year. Questioned about Peddlers' jumping the last day, JM said the gelding had given hinself a fright at the first and was careful for a couple afterwards. MC joked that RJ would be asking his wife to check the medical insurance before he took the ride on Menorah but RJ described Menorah as 'one of his best rides of the week'.
Arkle tip: MF Sprinter Sacre - quote: 'I've never seen [Nicky Henderson] so excited by a horse.'
The value in the Champion Hurdle looked to be Overturn each way at 33/1 - tipped by RJ and described by JM as 'the toughest horse in racing I know'. A sceanrio was painted - plenty of the fancied contenders are hold-up horses - Overturn just could get an easy lead and who knows what might happen... NH liked Rock on Ruby who is considered on a par with Zarkander at Ditcheat.
In the Neptune on Wednesday: MC Make Your Mark, NH Boston Bob, RJ Simonsig (on good ground), SC Monksland (will be suited by better ground).
For the RSA discussion centred around whether Grands Crus would now be allowed to take his chance in the Gold Cup given Kauto is no better than 50/50 to run. RJ pointed out that Grands Crus' time in the Feltham (6.01.8s) was faster than Kauto Star's in the King George (6.05s). Bobs Worth will stay and I know several people are keen but MF had a big tip for Paul Nicholls' Join Together in the programme. MF said Bobs Worth 'doesn't travel as well as he used to.' NH tipped First Lieutenant.
The Queen Mother Champion Chase was seen as 'weak' with JM describing Sizing Europe as 'a certainty'.
There followed the charity auction where an overnight stay and trip for four people to Alan King's gallops went for £1,000 while a similar offering for two at Nicky Henderson's made £950. In the raffle I was fortunate enough to pick up the RP Cheltenham Festival Guide but fellow blogger James Yellen could only rue his luck as he missed four tickets to the Haydock races by one...
Unfortunately I had to leave shortly afterwards but not before I was told that layers had priced the market wrong for the Ryanair with Rubi Light one to avoid; make of that, or indeed any of this post, what you will.
It's worth mentioning Coral has appointed Jason Maguire and Paddy Brennan to be their Cheltenham ambassadors this year . A £100 wager has been placed on each of their mounts over the past week or so - up to last night £5850 had been raised for Racing Welfare; bets will continue to be placed throughout Festival week with a minimum £10,000 guaranteed for the charity.
Finally, I'll share a couple of tips that were heard around our table only...
Calum Madell (theyoungracegoer.com) - check out his comprehensive review of the evening - holds a small share in Magnifique Etoile who goes in the County Hurdle on Friday. This one has decent form to his name including a third in the Tolworth behind Captain Conan and Colour Squadron as well as finishing ahead of Batonnier in a Fontwell bumper and behind Mountbazon in the Doncaster Spring Sales bumper. Callum tells me he could be seven to nine pounds well in - the gelding is best-priced 25/1 with Willliam Hill.
Over on the Flat blogger James Yellen (thestableview.wordpress.com) had a word for William Muir's Stepper Point who could turn out to be Kings Stand Stakes material.
This year has been different on two counts. Firstly, I received a kind invitation to attend the Haydock event from sponsors Coral and secondly, given the form in the book, a surfeit of tips for the Championship races looked rather unlikely beforehand.
The panel, chaired in turn by AtTheRaces presenter Matt Chapman [MC] and Mick Fitzgerald [MF], consisted of Richard Johnson [RJ], Niall Hannity [NH], Simon Clare [SC from Coral Bookmakers] and Jason Maguire [JM] who, apparently, displayed admirable restraint on learning his name had been misspelt in the souvenir programme... And, more or less, unanimous the panel were in their selections for the 'big four': Hurricane Fly in the Champion Hurdle; Sizing Europe for the Champion Chase; Big Buck's the World Hurdle and Long Run the Gold Cup following news of Kauto Star's 'pretty awful fall' on the Ditcheat gallops last week.
Matt Chapman's stentorian style (YeeeHaaa!) wouldn't necessarily have appealed to all patrons present but his piece in the programme was particularly pertinent - we hardly need preview nights as 'it all looks so easy...'
Of course, such thinking is dangerous and, where horses are concerned, nothing can ever be described as 'easy' otherwise we'd all have large amounts of cash in the bank. Still, the point Matt made is that he feels layers are 'wrong' to think they'll get a result from the big four; if an upset were to occur, going on past results, it's most likely to come in the Gold Cup.
Having arrived before most of the organisers, I had plenty of time to check out the lie of the land, get to know fellow bloggers and then tuck in to the slap-up meal. The event, somewhat delayed at the start, kicked off with a live phone call on a somewhat intermittent line to Nicky Henderson.
The news from Seven Barrows was that plenty of schooling would take place this weekend with AP riding, amongst others, Darlan and Barry Geraghty on board Simonsig. It was reported Geraghty is particularly keen that Simonsig goes for the Neptune on Wednesday rather than the Supreme. Connections felt Binocular was back to something like his best the last day at Wincanton (although Paul Nicholls felt Celestial Halo had not run to his mark) and will not be schooled. The biggest word was for Sprinter Sacre in the Arkle, described by his handler as a horse 'with tremendous presence' who 'likes showing off'. The trainer rates this one his best chance at the meeting but realised even money about one in a novice chase at the Festival wouldn't appeal to everyone so he put up Triolo D'Alene 'down in the handicaps'. This one is currently priced 7/1 favourite for the final race on the opening day but is also quoted 14/1 for Thursday's Byrne Plate - now, the line wasn't the best, but my understanding was Nicky had said he was in the Byrne, but I could be mistaken.
Other tips for the Supreme: SC - Darlan; JM Cinders And Ashhes; NH Sous Les Cieux; RJ Colour Squadron.
The panel sold the Arkle as possibly the race of the whole meeting. Having three rated in the 160s, (Sprinter Sacre 161, Peddlers Cross 160, Al Ferof 160) BHA handicapper Phil Smith considers this one of the best renewals in recent years. With Cue Card likely to make a strong gallop, JM indicated Peddlers Cross & co. will be out to get Sprinter Sacre off the bridle, pointing out the horse never came up the hill when finishing third in the Supreme last year. Questioned about Peddlers' jumping the last day, JM said the gelding had given hinself a fright at the first and was careful for a couple afterwards. MC joked that RJ would be asking his wife to check the medical insurance before he took the ride on Menorah but RJ described Menorah as 'one of his best rides of the week'.
Arkle tip: MF Sprinter Sacre - quote: 'I've never seen [Nicky Henderson] so excited by a horse.'
The value in the Champion Hurdle looked to be Overturn each way at 33/1 - tipped by RJ and described by JM as 'the toughest horse in racing I know'. A sceanrio was painted - plenty of the fancied contenders are hold-up horses - Overturn just could get an easy lead and who knows what might happen... NH liked Rock on Ruby who is considered on a par with Zarkander at Ditcheat.
In the Neptune on Wednesday: MC Make Your Mark, NH Boston Bob, RJ Simonsig (on good ground), SC Monksland (will be suited by better ground).
For the RSA discussion centred around whether Grands Crus would now be allowed to take his chance in the Gold Cup given Kauto is no better than 50/50 to run. RJ pointed out that Grands Crus' time in the Feltham (6.01.8s) was faster than Kauto Star's in the King George (6.05s). Bobs Worth will stay and I know several people are keen but MF had a big tip for Paul Nicholls' Join Together in the programme. MF said Bobs Worth 'doesn't travel as well as he used to.' NH tipped First Lieutenant.
The Queen Mother Champion Chase was seen as 'weak' with JM describing Sizing Europe as 'a certainty'.
There followed the charity auction where an overnight stay and trip for four people to Alan King's gallops went for £1,000 while a similar offering for two at Nicky Henderson's made £950. In the raffle I was fortunate enough to pick up the RP Cheltenham Festival Guide but fellow blogger James Yellen could only rue his luck as he missed four tickets to the Haydock races by one...
Unfortunately I had to leave shortly afterwards but not before I was told that layers had priced the market wrong for the Ryanair with Rubi Light one to avoid; make of that, or indeed any of this post, what you will.
It's worth mentioning Coral has appointed Jason Maguire and Paddy Brennan to be their Cheltenham ambassadors this year . A £100 wager has been placed on each of their mounts over the past week or so - up to last night £5850 had been raised for Racing Welfare; bets will continue to be placed throughout Festival week with a minimum £10,000 guaranteed for the charity.
Finally, I'll share a couple of tips that were heard around our table only...
Calum Madell (theyoungracegoer.com) - check out his comprehensive review of the evening - holds a small share in Magnifique Etoile who goes in the County Hurdle on Friday. This one has decent form to his name including a third in the Tolworth behind Captain Conan and Colour Squadron as well as finishing ahead of Batonnier in a Fontwell bumper and behind Mountbazon in the Doncaster Spring Sales bumper. Callum tells me he could be seven to nine pounds well in - the gelding is best-priced 25/1 with Willliam Hill.
Over on the Flat blogger James Yellen (thestableview.wordpress.com) had a word for William Muir's Stepper Point who could turn out to be Kings Stand Stakes material.
Sunday, February 26, 2012
A handful of Festival pointers before a Festival preview evening...
Thanks to the generosity of Coral, I'm attending the 2012 Cheltenham Preview evening at Haydock on Thursday. I'll blog about the debates and discussions after the event but in the meantime, with plenty of work to be done, I thought I'd give some quick pointers to my current thinking...
Tuesday:
Arkle
Jockey Joe Tizzard appeared notably bullish about Cue Card's chance on Saturday's Morning Line (9/1 William Hill).
Champion Hurdle
Oscars Well each-way (14/1 Coral) is of interest. Looked the winner of the Neptune last year before a blunder at the last cost him.
Wednesday:
RSA Chase
Invictus (12/1 Ladbrokes). A couple of months ago The Yorkshire Post reported that part-owner of Grand Crus Roger Stanley reckoned they were 70/30 more likely to go to the Gold Cup with their pride and joy. If that comes about, the RSA market will change markedly.
Champion Chase
Highly unlikely I know, but Peddler's Cross (20/1) would be worth a second look should connections have a rush of blood and run here rather than in the Arkle.
Champion bumper
Plenty of work to do but I'm considering Royal Guardsman and New Years Eve.
Friday:
Albert Bartlett
Paul Nicholls' Rocky Creek looked decent at Doncaster the last day.
Gold Cup
I take a positive view of Long Run's latest Newbury effort where he broke the track record.
I know a fellow racegoer who sees De Boitron as something of a dark horse but, with Graham Lee out, is keen to see who gets the ride. Ferdy Murphy's gelding finished fourth in last year's Grand Annual and holds entries in this year's race (16/1) as well as in Thursday's Festival Plate (25/1) run over two miles five.
I have no doubt I'll have changed my mind completely after Thursday evening's deliberations... ;)
Tuesday:
Arkle
Jockey Joe Tizzard appeared notably bullish about Cue Card's chance on Saturday's Morning Line (9/1 William Hill).
Champion Hurdle
Oscars Well each-way (14/1 Coral) is of interest. Looked the winner of the Neptune last year before a blunder at the last cost him.
Wednesday:
RSA Chase
Invictus (12/1 Ladbrokes). A couple of months ago The Yorkshire Post reported that part-owner of Grand Crus Roger Stanley reckoned they were 70/30 more likely to go to the Gold Cup with their pride and joy. If that comes about, the RSA market will change markedly.
Champion Chase
Highly unlikely I know, but Peddler's Cross (20/1) would be worth a second look should connections have a rush of blood and run here rather than in the Arkle.
Champion bumper
Plenty of work to do but I'm considering Royal Guardsman and New Years Eve.
Friday:
Albert Bartlett
Paul Nicholls' Rocky Creek looked decent at Doncaster the last day.
Gold Cup
I take a positive view of Long Run's latest Newbury effort where he broke the track record.
I know a fellow racegoer who sees De Boitron as something of a dark horse but, with Graham Lee out, is keen to see who gets the ride. Ferdy Murphy's gelding finished fourth in last year's Grand Annual and holds entries in this year's race (16/1) as well as in Thursday's Festival Plate (25/1) run over two miles five.
I have no doubt I'll have changed my mind completely after Thursday evening's deliberations... ;)
Friday, February 24, 2012
Kempton, Adonis and other assorted offerings to the gods of racing...
Kempton's opener tomorrow is the Adonis Juvenile Hurdle. According to Greek mythology Aphrodite fell in love with Adonis, the god of beauty and desire, and entrusted the beautiful youth to Persephone, queen of the underworld. Persephone was also somewhat taken with Adonis and, when asked, refused to give him back to Aphrodite which resulted in something of a barney between the two goddesses. The compromise reached saw Adonis spend a third of the year with each goddess while he chose with which goddess to spend the final third - he chose Aphrodite but in the end, beautiful or not, he still managed to himself get slain by a wild boar. What has all this got to do with Kempton? Well, the Adonis is looking all Greek to me. Course and distance winner Sadler's Risk has been well-touted but is a jolly short price and the Hobbs yard isn't firing at present. The world and his wife knows about coughing in Paul Nicholls' yard but three winners from four runners at Sandown earlier today (Bold Chief 7/2, Toubab 8/11f and Sky Watch 7/2) would suggest Dildar offers value. Nicky Henderson's filly Une Artiste took the Victor Ludorum on heavy ground at Haydock last week while Baby Mix could easily bounce back from a disappointing effort behind Grumeti; Tom George has his team in fine form at the moment but the concession of weight to all rivals may prove the undoing of Baby Mix. Favourites have obliged on five occasions in the past ten years but I'll chance Dildar (7/2 with BetVictor) and I have to take a small each-way interest in Orthodox Lad at 40/1 (William Hill) who may have improvement to come on better ground.
Adonis, Aphrodite, beauty and love are all very well but there's no love lost between the Racing Post and rival publication Racing Plus. In the feature Racing Plus Chase, a race previously associated with the Racing Post but this year sponsored by Racing Plus, I'll stick with Nacarat, mainly for old times sake. In my opinion this horse shows his very best form on good ground - he won the 2009 renewal - but at 11 it's probable one or two will prove a bit too quick at the business end.
All eyes will be on Grumeti in the Dovecote (3.40) - Choc Thornton takes his first ride in public on Alan King's charge who is quoted as low as 7/1 for the Triumph Hurdle. On paper this doesn't look a complete walk in the park with Keys (blinkers fitted for the first time over hurdles), Terre Du Vent (placed behind Kasbah Bliss in France) and well-touted newcomer Dodging Bullets in the field.
On ratings Cristal Bonus is the one to beat in the Pendil (4.10) but he makes little appeal as a bettng proposition.
The tissue for the concluding bumper has the only previous winner in the field third in the market. I saw Starvin Marvin win at Warwick seven weeks ago and he did it well enough at odds of 14/1, overturning well-backed favourite Le Bec from the Emma Lavelle yard by two lengths. Earlier today Le Bec was sent off joint-favourite in the Sandown bumper but again failed to oblige, beaten four and a quarter lengths into third. Colin Tizzard's Virginia Ash will be the likely favourite tomorrow on the back of his third in a listed Cheltenham event where he was seen staying on to good effect but to these eyes Starvin Marvin put his race to bed quickly enough at Warwick and this flat track could suit - I'll consider a wager if the tissue price of 9/2 becomes available on the day.
Finally one tentative Eider suggestion offered to the gods of the Tyne - Peter Niven's mare Posh Bird is weighted to turn around recent form with Mister Marker (two pounds for half a length over three miles one at Ayr) and she may appreciate drying ground more than a number of her rivals.
Adonis, Aphrodite, beauty and love are all very well but there's no love lost between the Racing Post and rival publication Racing Plus. In the feature Racing Plus Chase, a race previously associated with the Racing Post but this year sponsored by Racing Plus, I'll stick with Nacarat, mainly for old times sake. In my opinion this horse shows his very best form on good ground - he won the 2009 renewal - but at 11 it's probable one or two will prove a bit too quick at the business end.
All eyes will be on Grumeti in the Dovecote (3.40) - Choc Thornton takes his first ride in public on Alan King's charge who is quoted as low as 7/1 for the Triumph Hurdle. On paper this doesn't look a complete walk in the park with Keys (blinkers fitted for the first time over hurdles), Terre Du Vent (placed behind Kasbah Bliss in France) and well-touted newcomer Dodging Bullets in the field.
On ratings Cristal Bonus is the one to beat in the Pendil (4.10) but he makes little appeal as a bettng proposition.
The tissue for the concluding bumper has the only previous winner in the field third in the market. I saw Starvin Marvin win at Warwick seven weeks ago and he did it well enough at odds of 14/1, overturning well-backed favourite Le Bec from the Emma Lavelle yard by two lengths. Earlier today Le Bec was sent off joint-favourite in the Sandown bumper but again failed to oblige, beaten four and a quarter lengths into third. Colin Tizzard's Virginia Ash will be the likely favourite tomorrow on the back of his third in a listed Cheltenham event where he was seen staying on to good effect but to these eyes Starvin Marvin put his race to bed quickly enough at Warwick and this flat track could suit - I'll consider a wager if the tissue price of 9/2 becomes available on the day.
Finally one tentative Eider suggestion offered to the gods of the Tyne - Peter Niven's mare Posh Bird is weighted to turn around recent form with Mister Marker (two pounds for half a length over three miles one at Ayr) and she may appreciate drying ground more than a number of her rivals.
Friday, February 17, 2012
Saturday quick picks
At Ascot Bobs Worth will be a short price for the Reynoldstown (1.50); for the record the favourite has obliged on five occasions in the past decade. I've not been particularly impressed with Bobs jumping of the larger obstacles so I'm torn between Silviniaco Conti and Invictus. The former hasn't won over the distance but his two and a quarter length second to Grand Crus in the Feltham on Boxing Day reads well; this stiffer track may not help the cause if stamina becomes the issue but at the weights he's the one they have to beat. Invictus was somewhat disappointing at Cheltenham on New Year's Day but it came to light later that Alan King's charge had lost a shoe. I'm prepared to forgive that run; Invictus is likely to appreciate the step up in trip but the hint in the Weekender is he'll come on for the run with the Festival just around the corner. 8/1 Invictus is tempting but as only one winner has started bigger than 9/2 in the past decade (Montgermont 17/2 in 2006) Silviniaco Conti is the suggestion.
The last time Riverside Theatre saw a racecourse he took last year's running of the Ascot Chase (3.00) and plenty will think he can repeat the trick this time around. Kauto Stone is the only six year old in the field; in the past decade no six year old has taken this. - all winners (excepting Riverside Theatre last year) have been aged eight or older. Favourites have won six of the previous ten renewals so Riverside Theatre is the selection.
At Haydock I'll consider an each-way wager on Flying Flynn (18/1 with Coral this evening) in the Prestige Novices' Hurdle (2.10). Philip Hobbs reports this one has progressed following his second to Hadrian's Approach at Ascot in December.
The Rendlesham (2.45) looks trappy. On ratings Featherbed Lane is the one but he's no price so I'll watch from the sidelines. Donald McCain has a word for Reindeer Dippin but if you fancy Restless Harry you'd be advised to ensure the gelding hasn't worked himself up beforehand - the horse doesn't always travel well to the races from his Stratford base.
The Grand National Trial at 3.20 should prove informative but the layers have it about right quoting the Welsh National first and second, Le Beau Bai and Giles Cross, as joint favourites. It's worth noting that until fairly recently Giles Cross had the Eider Chase at Newcastle as his target so perhaps connections are hopeful of turning the form around. At Chepstow Victor Dartnall's gelding went down seven lengths to Le Beau Bai conceding five pounds; on revised terms Le Beau Bai now concedes two pounds so, barring accidents, they should finish in close proximity - of course, whether that's at the head of affairs is another matter altogether!
The last time Riverside Theatre saw a racecourse he took last year's running of the Ascot Chase (3.00) and plenty will think he can repeat the trick this time around. Kauto Stone is the only six year old in the field; in the past decade no six year old has taken this. - all winners (excepting Riverside Theatre last year) have been aged eight or older. Favourites have won six of the previous ten renewals so Riverside Theatre is the selection.
At Haydock I'll consider an each-way wager on Flying Flynn (18/1 with Coral this evening) in the Prestige Novices' Hurdle (2.10). Philip Hobbs reports this one has progressed following his second to Hadrian's Approach at Ascot in December.
The Rendlesham (2.45) looks trappy. On ratings Featherbed Lane is the one but he's no price so I'll watch from the sidelines. Donald McCain has a word for Reindeer Dippin but if you fancy Restless Harry you'd be advised to ensure the gelding hasn't worked himself up beforehand - the horse doesn't always travel well to the races from his Stratford base.
The Grand National Trial at 3.20 should prove informative but the layers have it about right quoting the Welsh National first and second, Le Beau Bai and Giles Cross, as joint favourites. It's worth noting that until fairly recently Giles Cross had the Eider Chase at Newcastle as his target so perhaps connections are hopeful of turning the form around. At Chepstow Victor Dartnall's gelding went down seven lengths to Le Beau Bai conceding five pounds; on revised terms Le Beau Bai now concedes two pounds so, barring accidents, they should finish in close proximity - of course, whether that's at the head of affairs is another matter altogether!
Friday, February 10, 2012
It may be freezing but free tickets are up for grabs!
At the time of writing Musselburgh is the only turf card left standing; earlier today the track made 1,000 tickets available free of charge for its Scottish Cheltenham Trials meeting.. Should racing go ahead, I'll closely watch the progress of John Ferguson's three runners (Creekside in the Scottish Triumph Hurdle at 2.05, Cry Of Freedom in the Scottish County Hurdle at 3.45 and Cape Dutch in the finale at 4.50) - the trainer has an impressive 37.5% win strike rate this season - 18 wins from 48 runs.
Newbury's Super Saturday card was called off this morning but has has been re-arranged for next Friday with sponsors Betfair offering free entry for all racegoers.
Meanwhile Nicky Henderson is considering sending Binocular north for Kelso's Morebattle Hurdle on Wednesday. I'm sure the trainer doesn't hold particularly fond memories of the race - two years ago Zaynar was beaten at odds of 1/14f by the Howard Johnson trained Quwetwo on quite desperate ground.
Let's hope there's some slightly warmer weather in the offing over the next few days.
Newbury's Super Saturday card was called off this morning but has has been re-arranged for next Friday with sponsors Betfair offering free entry for all racegoers.
Meanwhile Nicky Henderson is considering sending Binocular north for Kelso's Morebattle Hurdle on Wednesday. I'm sure the trainer doesn't hold particularly fond memories of the race - two years ago Zaynar was beaten at odds of 1/14f by the Howard Johnson trained Quwetwo on quite desperate ground.
Let's hope there's some slightly warmer weather in the offing over the next few days.
Friday, February 03, 2012
The weather, Wetherby and Weatherbys
No selections this weekend - the turf cards at Sandown and Wetherby have already been lost to the weather and prospects at Ffos Las can hardly be described as good after clerk of the course Tim Long conceded frost had got under the covers - there's an inspection at 9.00 tomorrow morning.
What do we have to look forward to? Well, the Cheltenham Festival is just over five weeks away and the team behind the Weatherbys Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide 2012 has started sending out tantalising statistical tweets on @CheltFestNews. The guide, now in its 13th year, is set to be published on February 24th and at £14.95 (including first class postage and packing), will, as always, prove a sound investment and extremely good value for money. This year you can also subscribe to the guide's Text Updates for £9.70 or Online Updates at a cost of £20.00
I'm staying disciplined and will not be tempted by tomorrow's rugby internationals, so no wagers for me this weekend; looking on the bright side, that'll be the first time I've managed to break even this year...
What do we have to look forward to? Well, the Cheltenham Festival is just over five weeks away and the team behind the Weatherbys Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide 2012 has started sending out tantalising statistical tweets on @CheltFestNews. The guide, now in its 13th year, is set to be published on February 24th and at £14.95 (including first class postage and packing), will, as always, prove a sound investment and extremely good value for money. This year you can also subscribe to the guide's Text Updates for £9.70 or Online Updates at a cost of £20.00
I'm staying disciplined and will not be tempted by tomorrow's rugby internationals, so no wagers for me this weekend; looking on the bright side, that'll be the first time I've managed to break even this year...
Friday, January 27, 2012
Harry's trial and the Festival Trials
You know, it's a week for trials...
On Thursday Harry Redknapp was reported to have said 'I have never written a letter in my life' yet I'm sure I can recall the Tottenham manager having written the occasional column for the Racing Post in the past. Harry also claimed his English wasn't up to scratch and he couldn't spell for toffee but he certainly appears a bit better at Maths as he allegedly asked for a 10% cut of the £3 million profit cleared when England striker Peter Crouch moved from Portsmouth. Hmmm, I'm sure the judge will get to the bottom of it all.
From one trial with its tribulations to several...
The decision of connections to withdraw Grand Crus from the Argento Chase, the feature at Cheltenham's Festival Trials Day, has changed the look of the race completely. I fancied Midnight Chase, fifth in last year's Gold Cup, to offer some each-way value at around 9/1 but this evening he's just 6s, with Ladbrokes going noticeably shorter at 9/2. On ratings the three to concentrate on are Captain Chris, Diamond Harry and Tidal Bay. Captain Chris has done most of his racing over shorter distances but looked to stay the trip when third behind Kauto Star in the King George; I've tipped Diamond Harry a couple of times to date but this talented, notoriously fragile individual has twice been withdrawn on the morning of a big race; and Tidal Bay is something of an enigma. Discussing this race with a colleague, he felt Midnight Chase had seen his best days - I'm not convinced and I feel he shows his best form on good ground but Diamond Harry is the suggestion.
The Triumph Hurdle Trial should prove informative and to my mind looks more comepttive than the market would have us believe. Hinterland (runs in the handicap hurdle at 4.15) looks a useful benchmark - Paul Nicholls' charge beat Hollow Tree three lengths giving that runner-up four pounds but was subsequently beaten seven lengths (conceding seven pounds) by Baby Mix. As a play against likely favourite Grumeti I slightly prefer Tom George's course and distance winner Baby Mix to Nicholls runner Pearl Swan.
I considered Hell's Bay each-way (16/1) in the 2.05 but recent stable form is off-putting.
In the Cleeve Hurdle (3.40) Big Buck's bids for his fifteenth consecutive win but it would be worth remembering he won't be fully wound up for this - the World Hurdle in March being the main target. Connections opted to run here last weekend; the general view is Big Buck's will be some 10 pounds off his best which may give connections of Mourad cause for hope although Willie Mullins' charge also has the World Hurdle as his aim....
On Thursday Harry Redknapp was reported to have said 'I have never written a letter in my life' yet I'm sure I can recall the Tottenham manager having written the occasional column for the Racing Post in the past. Harry also claimed his English wasn't up to scratch and he couldn't spell for toffee but he certainly appears a bit better at Maths as he allegedly asked for a 10% cut of the £3 million profit cleared when England striker Peter Crouch moved from Portsmouth. Hmmm, I'm sure the judge will get to the bottom of it all.
From one trial with its tribulations to several...
The decision of connections to withdraw Grand Crus from the Argento Chase, the feature at Cheltenham's Festival Trials Day, has changed the look of the race completely. I fancied Midnight Chase, fifth in last year's Gold Cup, to offer some each-way value at around 9/1 but this evening he's just 6s, with Ladbrokes going noticeably shorter at 9/2. On ratings the three to concentrate on are Captain Chris, Diamond Harry and Tidal Bay. Captain Chris has done most of his racing over shorter distances but looked to stay the trip when third behind Kauto Star in the King George; I've tipped Diamond Harry a couple of times to date but this talented, notoriously fragile individual has twice been withdrawn on the morning of a big race; and Tidal Bay is something of an enigma. Discussing this race with a colleague, he felt Midnight Chase had seen his best days - I'm not convinced and I feel he shows his best form on good ground but Diamond Harry is the suggestion.
The Triumph Hurdle Trial should prove informative and to my mind looks more comepttive than the market would have us believe. Hinterland (runs in the handicap hurdle at 4.15) looks a useful benchmark - Paul Nicholls' charge beat Hollow Tree three lengths giving that runner-up four pounds but was subsequently beaten seven lengths (conceding seven pounds) by Baby Mix. As a play against likely favourite Grumeti I slightly prefer Tom George's course and distance winner Baby Mix to Nicholls runner Pearl Swan.
I considered Hell's Bay each-way (16/1) in the 2.05 but recent stable form is off-putting.
In the Cleeve Hurdle (3.40) Big Buck's bids for his fifteenth consecutive win but it would be worth remembering he won't be fully wound up for this - the World Hurdle in March being the main target. Connections opted to run here last weekend; the general view is Big Buck's will be some 10 pounds off his best which may give connections of Mourad cause for hope although Willie Mullins' charge also has the World Hurdle as his aim....
Friday, January 20, 2012
The Ascot and Haydock features
Ascot's Victor Chandler Chase (3.10) looks a trappy affair. Layers have priced up Nicky Henderson's Finian's Rainbow the favourite; of the eight runners in the field seven have an official rating and in the eyes of the handicapper Finian's Rainbow is the sixth best horse in the race, looking to find some nine pounds with top-rated animal Somersby. Henrietta Knight's charge hasn't won over two miles since December 2009 and last time finished fourth behind Kauto Star in the King George, a trip of three miles - here connections try cheek pieces for the first time but his chance is respected. Al Ferof is a novice of considerable potential - his neck defeat of For Non Stop at Sandown last time wasn't done any favours when the runner-up was beaten four lengths in receipt of seven pounds from Cue Card at Newbury. I've had my fingers burned a couple of times with Wishfull Thinking this season; Philip Hobbs' horse weakened three out in the Paddy Power Chase at Cheltenham's Open meeting before ruining his chance by racing far too freely in the Tingle Creek. The last time Richard Johnson held his mount up and that tactic appeared to work better with Wishfull Thinking going down threequarters of a length to Finian's Rainbow (receiving one pound) in Kempton's Desert Orchid Chase (Oiseau De Nuit in third). In that race Finian's Rainbow blundered badly four from home but recovered well to take the spoils on the run-in while once again Wishfull Thinking, whose breathing problems have been well documented, didn't look the easiest of rides and appeared to hang slightly left at the obstacles up the home straight. Trappy indeed, but at the prices on offer I'm going to give Wishfull Thinking (13/2) one more chance while I wouldn't put anyone off having an each-way dabble on Oiseau De Nuit (40/1 with the sponsors) provided the eight make it to post.
The feature at Haydock, where there is a precautionary inspection at 8.00 am, is the Peter Marsh Chase; the going is reported as heavy. At twelve years old Grand National winner Mon Mome isn't getting any younger but he put in an eye-catching round behind Mostly Bob at Cheltenham on New Year's Day. Venetia Williams' charge was fourth in this race last year carrying 11-10 off a mark of 156; this year he's on a mark of 145 and carries 11-8 so I'm thinking he could be in the mix - he's worth an each-way interest at around the 8/1 mark.
The feature at Haydock, where there is a precautionary inspection at 8.00 am, is the Peter Marsh Chase; the going is reported as heavy. At twelve years old Grand National winner Mon Mome isn't getting any younger but he put in an eye-catching round behind Mostly Bob at Cheltenham on New Year's Day. Venetia Williams' charge was fourth in this race last year carrying 11-10 off a mark of 156; this year he's on a mark of 145 and carries 11-8 so I'm thinking he could be in the mix - he's worth an each-way interest at around the 8/1 mark.
Friday, January 13, 2012
Saturday's Warwick card
Warwick is a few short miles down the road from here but I haven't attended a meeting there for well over ten years; I find the hill in the middle of the course particularly disconcerting. However, I've had my leave form signed off so tomorrow I'll put the concerns to one side for the Classic Chase meeting, the course's best jumps card of the year. The going is described as good to soft with soft places on the hurdles course - most people think it will ride 'dead' as there has been very little rain during the week. This is my thinking at the moment...
12.50 Novices' Handicap Hurdle. No selection.
1.25 3 mile Novices' Chase. Four of the seven have an official rating and of those Frascati Park, priced up favourite this evening, is best served by race conditions. I'm tempted to chance Emma Lavelle's unexposed gelding Court Victory. In a recent Stable Tour article the trainer described her charge as a giant, measuring 17.3hh. This sharpish track may not be ideal and he may need a bit more cut but the trip should suit and the accurate jumping he displayed last time at Uttoxeter should serve him well down the back straight where the fences come thick and fast. In the past Golden Chieftain has been seen to have problems in the jumping department. Only one favourite has obliged in the past six renewals, with either the second or third favourite taking the spoils on the other five occasions.
2.00 2 mile Handicap Chase. Previous course and distance winner Marodima made all to win over two and a half miles at Fontwell on Thursday and is priced up favourite on the back of that. A talented individual who was something of a tearaway in his younger days, he's more settled now but may struggle to build up a lead against these. Educated Evans makes more appeal than Roi De Rose who has tended to race over further and has blinkers fitted for the first time. I'd forgive Tara Royal his last effort - 10/1 could look big after the event.
2.30 3 mile one furlong handicap hurdle. Looks incredibly competitive. Two each-way chances against the field - Barwell Bridge (9/1) ran well on his seasonal debut at Wincanton 19 days ago while Venetia Williams' runners are currently in exceptional form and Aachen (20/1) catches my eye. Tenth in the Coral Cup at the Cheltenham Festival, he's never really delivered to his potential but connections try cheek pieces for the first time; he travelled well for a long way at Bangor the last time before fading badly.
3.05 Leamington Novices' Hurdle (2m 5f). The favourite has taken five of the last six renewals and Emma Lavelle appears particularly bullish about the chances of her well-regarded gelding Highand Lodge (owned by the marvellously-named syndicate 'The Unusual Suspects'). There are some interesting sorts in this, including Cotton Mill and Ambion Wood; on balance I'm not inclined to oppose the favourite.
3.40 Classic Chase (3m 5f). Six of the 14 runners are set to carry more than their long handicap weight. In the past those who have run in the Welsh National have struggled here - this year Bench Warrent finished fifth, Hey Big Spender fell and Blazing Bailey was pulled up. I quietly fancied Neptune Equester at Wetherby last time but he lost touch mid-race before staying on again in the Rowland Meyrick. The trainer put that down to a slow pace so I'm going to stay with Neptune Equester who looks nicely weighted and has Aidan Coleman in the saddle.
4.00 Bumper. No selection.
12.50 Novices' Handicap Hurdle. No selection.
1.25 3 mile Novices' Chase. Four of the seven have an official rating and of those Frascati Park, priced up favourite this evening, is best served by race conditions. I'm tempted to chance Emma Lavelle's unexposed gelding Court Victory. In a recent Stable Tour article the trainer described her charge as a giant, measuring 17.3hh. This sharpish track may not be ideal and he may need a bit more cut but the trip should suit and the accurate jumping he displayed last time at Uttoxeter should serve him well down the back straight where the fences come thick and fast. In the past Golden Chieftain has been seen to have problems in the jumping department. Only one favourite has obliged in the past six renewals, with either the second or third favourite taking the spoils on the other five occasions.
2.00 2 mile Handicap Chase. Previous course and distance winner Marodima made all to win over two and a half miles at Fontwell on Thursday and is priced up favourite on the back of that. A talented individual who was something of a tearaway in his younger days, he's more settled now but may struggle to build up a lead against these. Educated Evans makes more appeal than Roi De Rose who has tended to race over further and has blinkers fitted for the first time. I'd forgive Tara Royal his last effort - 10/1 could look big after the event.
2.30 3 mile one furlong handicap hurdle. Looks incredibly competitive. Two each-way chances against the field - Barwell Bridge (9/1) ran well on his seasonal debut at Wincanton 19 days ago while Venetia Williams' runners are currently in exceptional form and Aachen (20/1) catches my eye. Tenth in the Coral Cup at the Cheltenham Festival, he's never really delivered to his potential but connections try cheek pieces for the first time; he travelled well for a long way at Bangor the last time before fading badly.
3.05 Leamington Novices' Hurdle (2m 5f). The favourite has taken five of the last six renewals and Emma Lavelle appears particularly bullish about the chances of her well-regarded gelding Highand Lodge (owned by the marvellously-named syndicate 'The Unusual Suspects'). There are some interesting sorts in this, including Cotton Mill and Ambion Wood; on balance I'm not inclined to oppose the favourite.
3.40 Classic Chase (3m 5f). Six of the 14 runners are set to carry more than their long handicap weight. In the past those who have run in the Welsh National have struggled here - this year Bench Warrent finished fifth, Hey Big Spender fell and Blazing Bailey was pulled up. I quietly fancied Neptune Equester at Wetherby last time but he lost touch mid-race before staying on again in the Rowland Meyrick. The trainer put that down to a slow pace so I'm going to stay with Neptune Equester who looks nicely weighted and has Aidan Coleman in the saddle.
4.00 Bumper. No selection.
Friday, January 06, 2012
Time for the Tolworth
Only five declared for the Tolworth at Sandown tomorrow; a big run can be expected from both Propsect Wells and Colour Squadron while Nicky Henderson's Captain Conan has some smart French form to his name and could be anything. January is usually a quiet month for the Nicholls yard and connections have admitted their decision to let Propsect Wells take his chance here was 'an afterthought'. Colour Squadron makes more appeal, with underfoot conditions likely to suit Philip Hobbs' charge. Colour Squadron (2/1 generally) is the selection.
Other very quick notes...
The Strawberry One (4/1 this evening) has just one pound to find with top-rated Kaffie (7/4) on official ratings in the opener. She is considered, although it's worth noting her wins to date have come on good ground or quicker.
Course and distance winner Dave's Dream looks overpriced at 9/1 in the 2.05 and should be thereabouts granted a decent round of jumping. He merits each-way support, with David Bass claiming a valuable three pounds.
Other very quick notes...
The Strawberry One (4/1 this evening) has just one pound to find with top-rated Kaffie (7/4) on official ratings in the opener. She is considered, although it's worth noting her wins to date have come on good ground or quicker.
Course and distance winner Dave's Dream looks overpriced at 9/1 in the 2.05 and should be thereabouts granted a decent round of jumping. He merits each-way support, with David Bass claiming a valuable three pounds.
Saturday, December 31, 2011
New Year's Day 2012
Plum Pudding (18/1) may have been a topical winner of today's 2.20 at Warwick but he must rank as the luckiest winner of the year as first fence faller Tafika was still loose some six minutes after his tumble and hampered leading horse and 5/1 favourite Glens Boy in the shadow of the post to gift the race to the outsider. It certainly didn't make for the best of viewing, being described as 'carnage' by one commentator.
With that occurence in mind, here are some tentative suggestions for New Year's Day 2012 in this 800th blog post...
Cheltenham 1.05: Invictus (11/4 Ladbrokes) appeals as a play against likely favourtie Sonofvic. Sonofvic didn't look the most fluent of jumpers when going down to Grand Crus at Newbury on his first try over the larger obstacles.
Musselburgh 1.15: Bourne has to give 15 pounds to Eagle Rock but could offer value.
Musselburgh 2.25: I'm a fan of Marsh Warbler (fifth in the Ladbroke Hurdle at Ascot last time) but I'm not convinced the going or this track will see him to best advantage. Desert Cry, part-owned by Everton manager David Moyes, looked a very tricky ride in that same Ascot race.
Exeter 12.40: Theatrical Star has been quite highly tried and is an each-way wager if the tissue price of 12/1 becomes available on the day.
Exeter 2.55: I'd chance Penny Max against Golden Chieftain.
Exeter 4.00: Two to monitor in the bumper - Philip Hobbs' Billesley Road and Xaarcet, described in the autumn by Colin Tizzard as 'probably our best unraced horse for the season'.
Let me take this opportunity to wish all readers a happy and prosperous new year.
With that occurence in mind, here are some tentative suggestions for New Year's Day 2012 in this 800th blog post...
Cheltenham 1.05: Invictus (11/4 Ladbrokes) appeals as a play against likely favourtie Sonofvic. Sonofvic didn't look the most fluent of jumpers when going down to Grand Crus at Newbury on his first try over the larger obstacles.
Musselburgh 1.15: Bourne has to give 15 pounds to Eagle Rock but could offer value.
Musselburgh 2.25: I'm a fan of Marsh Warbler (fifth in the Ladbroke Hurdle at Ascot last time) but I'm not convinced the going or this track will see him to best advantage. Desert Cry, part-owned by Everton manager David Moyes, looked a very tricky ride in that same Ascot race.
Exeter 12.40: Theatrical Star has been quite highly tried and is an each-way wager if the tissue price of 12/1 becomes available on the day.
Exeter 2.55: I'd chance Penny Max against Golden Chieftain.
Exeter 4.00: Two to monitor in the bumper - Philip Hobbs' Billesley Road and Xaarcet, described in the autumn by Colin Tizzard as 'probably our best unraced horse for the season'.
Let me take this opportunity to wish all readers a happy and prosperous new year.
Friday, December 30, 2011
The final day of 2011
The last cards of 2011 have an end of year feel to them. Betfair will certainly be hoping for better things in 2012 following the recent fiasco surrounding their in-running market for the Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown. One year ago Betfair shares traded at 964p; this evening they closed at 752.50p, having recorded a twelve month high of 1054p in January.
At Newbury Philip Hobbs' Fingal Bay will be expected to take the Challow at 3.05 while the novice chase run an hour earlier should prove informative with an eye on the future. Alan King's Walkon has been touted by several but this will be no walk in the park with Colin Tizzard's Cue Card in the line-up as well as For Non Stop from the in-form Nick Williams yard. For Non Stop went down a neck to Al Ferof (quoted a 7/1 chance for the Arkle) in the Henry VIII Novices' Chase at Sandown four weeks ago; layers currently offer 20/1 about Walkon for the Cheltenham race. In the light of that, Ladbrokes' price of 11/4 about For Non Stop for tomorrow's event is of some interest.
Olofi goes in the finale and deserves a change of luck, having run some sound races in defeat. Naively I'd hoped for an each-way price but this evening he's generally on offer at 5/1 with William Hill going 6/1; I think I'll wait until next year for my next bet.
At Newbury Philip Hobbs' Fingal Bay will be expected to take the Challow at 3.05 while the novice chase run an hour earlier should prove informative with an eye on the future. Alan King's Walkon has been touted by several but this will be no walk in the park with Colin Tizzard's Cue Card in the line-up as well as For Non Stop from the in-form Nick Williams yard. For Non Stop went down a neck to Al Ferof (quoted a 7/1 chance for the Arkle) in the Henry VIII Novices' Chase at Sandown four weeks ago; layers currently offer 20/1 about Walkon for the Cheltenham race. In the light of that, Ladbrokes' price of 11/4 about For Non Stop for tomorrow's event is of some interest.
Olofi goes in the finale and deserves a change of luck, having run some sound races in defeat. Naively I'd hoped for an each-way price but this evening he's generally on offer at 5/1 with William Hill going 6/1; I think I'll wait until next year for my next bet.
Monday, December 26, 2011
Welsh National 2011
As always, particularly competitive but Richard Lee's Le Beau Bai catches the eye at the right end of the handicap. He's not the biggest of individuals but the heavy going should prove right up his street. Third in the 2009 running off a mark of 148, he goes here off 127 having won over the course at the beginning of the month; the yard had a welcome winner with 13 year old Victory Gunner earlier today. Suggestion: Le Beau Bai each-way (10/1 Betfred).
Friday, December 23, 2011
A quick Boxing Day selection box
Kempton's King George VI Chase is the Boxing Day highlight with eight declared. Long Run is the top-rated animal; he's never been the one to trust implicitly at the fences but his class has seen him through more often than not. In the Betfair at Haydock he was beaten eight lengths by Kauto Star but put in a couple of howlers down the back straight second time around and should strip fitter here. Today's Times reports that a set of golden plates have been created for Kauto and will be presented to his trainer Paul Nicholls before the race. Master Minded, Captain Chris and Somersby have stamina questions to answer but Diamond Harry will stay on this his first try going right-handed. He was 18 lengths behind in the Betfair but Barry Geraghty takes the ride and looks value at 16/1 provided the eight go to post. Favourites have an excellent record in this race but I'll take an each-way interest in Diamond Harry who won't be inconvenienced by further rain.
Binocular won the Christmas Hurdle last year but the race was mid-January - the horse's record before new year's day of a season isn't particularly encouraging. The yard is bullish but connections were before the Fighting Fifth - I'm not tempted.
Grand Crus has looked impressive over the larger obstacles this season and is fanceid to get the better of Bobs Worth whose jumping wasn't foot-perfect last time at Newbury when just catching Cue Card on the line. The Pipe yard hasn't totally discounted a stab at the Gold Cup with their novice.
Two worth a second look...
Wetherby 1.45 - Neptune Equester
Wincanton 2.15 - Tante Sissi.
Let me take this opportunity to wish all readers a very merry Christmas.
Binocular won the Christmas Hurdle last year but the race was mid-January - the horse's record before new year's day of a season isn't particularly encouraging. The yard is bullish but connections were before the Fighting Fifth - I'm not tempted.
Grand Crus has looked impressive over the larger obstacles this season and is fanceid to get the better of Bobs Worth whose jumping wasn't foot-perfect last time at Newbury when just catching Cue Card on the line. The Pipe yard hasn't totally discounted a stab at the Gold Cup with their novice.
Two worth a second look...
Wetherby 1.45 - Neptune Equester
Wincanton 2.15 - Tante Sissi.
Let me take this opportunity to wish all readers a very merry Christmas.
Sunday, December 18, 2011
The Ghost of Christmas Past
There is something awful about Christmas; I'm sure I'm not alone when I say the one thing that keeps me going at this time of year is the thought of the King George at Kempton on Boxing Day. With a sense of deja vu, I quickly trawled back through previous Christmas posts, just to ensure I hadn't started to mellow in old age...
Last year racing was in the midst of the big freeze; I was reduced to penning an article on train-spotting of all things.
2009's entry attempted to sum up a racing man's Christmas while in earlier years I tried to stimulate some artificial jollity by recommending racing related games to readers. In 2007 Horsey Hoppers looked something of a dodgy also-ran but The Really Nasty Horse Racing Game (2006) proved an outright winner.
In today's Sunday Telegraph Rose Prince's 10 ways to kickstart Christmas has palpably failed to lift my spirits and wandering thoughts of warmer weather in the summer only bring back to mind the time John Parrott swindled me out of a small fortune on a Cardiff pub quiz machine.
Have yourselves a merry little Christmas...
Last year racing was in the midst of the big freeze; I was reduced to penning an article on train-spotting of all things.
2009's entry attempted to sum up a racing man's Christmas while in earlier years I tried to stimulate some artificial jollity by recommending racing related games to readers. In 2007 Horsey Hoppers looked something of a dodgy also-ran but The Really Nasty Horse Racing Game (2006) proved an outright winner.
In today's Sunday Telegraph Rose Prince's 10 ways to kickstart Christmas has palpably failed to lift my spirits and wandering thoughts of warmer weather in the summer only bring back to mind the time John Parrott swindled me out of a small fortune on a Cardiff pub quiz machine.
Have yourselves a merry little Christmas...
Friday, December 16, 2011
Ladbroke hurdle @ Ascot
Popped up and busted for time: one selection - Marsh Warbler (14/1) each way in the Ladbroke Hurdle (3.35 Ascot) provided going is soft.
Friday, December 09, 2011
The International Hurdle at Cheltenham
A decent card at Cheltenham tomorrow where the feature Spinal Research The Atlantic 4 Gold Cup with 17 runners will generate plenty of bettng activity but I find the International Hurdle at 3.05 much more intriguing. After sending out 5 winners from 10 runners today, Nicky Henderson saddles one of the two four-year-olds in the field, Grandouet. The opposition includes last year's winner Menorah, the four-year-old Greatwood winner Brampour as well as the front-running Overturn who has done this blog a favour in the past couple of weeks with wins at Ascot and Newcastle. I'm loathe to desert Overturn but he's had two tough races in the past three weeks; immediately after the Fighting Fifth connections indicated they would give their charge a break so it's a surprise to see him out again so quickly. There's also a hint he carries out his front running role better on a flat track. I always think this race is a big ask for a four-year-old; in the past decade two have managed to pull off the trick, Detroit City in 2006 and Binocular in 2008. This year on official ratings Grandouet has five pounds in hand over Brampour and Harry Dereham, conditional jockey of the latter-named, can't claim seven pounds in this event. Menorah reverts to hurdles after unseating two from home at Exeter last time with a novice chase at his mercy; his chance is very much respected but 14/1 Clerk's Choice looks too big a price about a horse that finished two lengths behind Menorah in the Champion Hurdle reopposing here on four pounds better terms. There are mitigating circumstances - Menorah has already had that spin at Exeter and Clerk's Choice went to Oliver Sherwood's yard in unfortunate circumstances when the lass who looked after the horse broke her pelvis in an accident. Still, this race has been the target, the quick ground will suit and I still recall the horse bolting up over course and distance fourteen months ago, beating Barizan and Royal Mix in the process. Provided the rain stays away and the eight get to post, Clerk's Choice each-way at around 14/1 is the wager.
In the Relkeel (3.35) Oscar Whisky is the likeliest winner and is likely to start odds-on; in my opinion he's a horse who benefits from cut underfoot. On official ratings Any Given Day has two pounds to find and at 9/2 represents a play against the favourite for those brave enough.
This evening layers are taking differing views on the trappy-looking three mile novice hurdle at 1.55 which Mossley (runs in 12.45) won last year. Paddy Power go 7/4 about Halley while Coral and Ladbrokes offer 7/2. I was interested in Tim Vaughan's Rev It Up but according to his handler the gelding is better on soft ground so I'm going to watch from the sidelines.
In the Relkeel (3.35) Oscar Whisky is the likeliest winner and is likely to start odds-on; in my opinion he's a horse who benefits from cut underfoot. On official ratings Any Given Day has two pounds to find and at 9/2 represents a play against the favourite for those brave enough.
This evening layers are taking differing views on the trappy-looking three mile novice hurdle at 1.55 which Mossley (runs in 12.45) won last year. Paddy Power go 7/4 about Halley while Coral and Ladbrokes offer 7/2. I was interested in Tim Vaughan's Rev It Up but according to his handler the gelding is better on soft ground so I'm going to watch from the sidelines.
Friday, December 02, 2011
The Tingle Creek and the Becher feature
A cursory glance at tomorrow's Tingle Creek and Champion Chase winner Sizing Europe looks the one. With Tataniano now written off for the season, the current champion has 13 pounds in hand over nearest rival Wishfull Thinking. The market has priced the race accordingly; it's worth noting that the favourite has obliged on five occasions in the past decade and in that time the biggest-priced winner was 6/1 shot Cenkos in 2002. Having said all that, Sizing Europe had a right hard race over a mile further in the JNwine.com Champion Chase at Down Royal four weeks ago where he ran out of petrol on the run-in and was passed by Quito De La Roque. It's difficult to know how much that race will have taken out of him. Wishfull Thinking raced from the front in the Paddy Power over an extra half-mile but faded into sixth at the business end and was reported 'very thick in his wind' afterwards; Philip Hobbs, never one to talk up his horses for the sake of it, does not think his charge will be done for pace. While Kauto Stone could be one for the future, it's worth remembering this particular track provides a stern examination of any youngster's jumping but course and distance winner Gauvain isn't totally written off, although I've never found the gelding easy to win with. Sizing Europe is the clear form choice and 6/4 will look easy money to many but in search of a bit of value I'm going to chance Wishfull Thinking at around 3/1. Once again he's likely to race to the fore so at least I'll know my fate soon enough.
At Aintree the feature is The Becher Chase (2.10) run over the National fences. Fifteen go to post and there are plenty with chances including last year's winner Hello Bud who tries to repeat the trick just a couple of weeks short of his 14th birthday. I like a horse at a price with form over the fences in a race such as this and, to be honest, I'm struggling to find something to fit the bill. Niche Market appeals having finished fifth in the National but 8/1 is short enough and the layers are similarly shy about Topham winner Always Waining. Alan King holds National aspirations for West End Rocker and the bay looked unlucky to be brought down at Becher's in the spring so at around 14/1 I'll take a small each-way interest; he didn't shine on his seasonal debut around Cheltenham so connections will be hoping for a better showing here from their Warwick Classic Chase winner.
The opener at the same course sees a clash between Keys and Cinders And Ashes; the last time the pair met the former prevailed by a short-head in a Cheltenham bumper. Cinders And Ashes should come on for his seasonal debut two weeks ago while Keys was last seen finishing down the field in the Cesarewitch. In my book Cinders And Ashes will represent a play against likely favourite Keys if priced 11/4 or bigger.
At Aintree the feature is The Becher Chase (2.10) run over the National fences. Fifteen go to post and there are plenty with chances including last year's winner Hello Bud who tries to repeat the trick just a couple of weeks short of his 14th birthday. I like a horse at a price with form over the fences in a race such as this and, to be honest, I'm struggling to find something to fit the bill. Niche Market appeals having finished fifth in the National but 8/1 is short enough and the layers are similarly shy about Topham winner Always Waining. Alan King holds National aspirations for West End Rocker and the bay looked unlucky to be brought down at Becher's in the spring so at around 14/1 I'll take a small each-way interest; he didn't shine on his seasonal debut around Cheltenham so connections will be hoping for a better showing here from their Warwick Classic Chase winner.
The opener at the same course sees a clash between Keys and Cinders And Ashes; the last time the pair met the former prevailed by a short-head in a Cheltenham bumper. Cinders And Ashes should come on for his seasonal debut two weeks ago while Keys was last seen finishing down the field in the Cesarewitch. In my book Cinders And Ashes will represent a play against likely favourite Keys if priced 11/4 or bigger.
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