The 2025 Lavazza Handicap Hurdle at Ascot

All that talk about holding the Cheltenham Festival from Wednesday to Saturday has given me the spooks. It's bats.

Anyway, for coffee lovers looking to blow away the pumpkins and the cobwebs, here's a shot at tomorrow's Lavazza Handicap Hurdle (3.10 Ascot). 12 face the starter with the going currently described as good, good to firm in places, the quicker ground to be found up the home straight. Rain is forecast.

I've spent some time looking at the less exposed types; many hold a rating from the Flat:

127h 74 Flat (GER)  Alexei

121h 83 Flat             Indemnity

119h 69 Flat             Torrent

 116h 100 Flat          Fasol

113h 79 Flat             High Fibre

110h 81 Flat             Maasai Mara

One or two look potentially 'well in' if an arbitrary figure of +45 is used to convert a British Flat rating to a hurdle mark; market leader Alexei's Flat rating was achieved in Germany.

Joe Tizzard's charge was beaten two and a quarter lengths by Celtic Dino in the Welsh Champion Hurdle at Chepstow three weeks ago - and may have finished closer to the winner with a better leap at the last. Stable form is the concern though with just one winner from 23 runners in the past fortnight.

Bought out of Roger Varian's yard for £80,000 at the beginning of the year, Indemnity has won each of the three handicap hurdles he has contested, last time beating solid yardstick Bowmore, the pair 17 lengths clear of Vocito in third. Part owned by Andrew Gemmell, the gelding travelled strongly that day at Market Rasen and, for the most part, looked quick over the obstacles.

Torrent's second behind Gibbs Island in a four-year-old hurdle at Chepstow last time reads well - the winner beat Give It To Me Oj six lengths in the Victor Ludorum at Haydock in February before weakening from three out in the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham.

No four-year-old has won this race in the past decade.

Fasol beat High Fibre in a Taunton maiden in March before going down a neck to Dance And Glance in a novice at the same track. Paul Nicholls' charge subsequently finished five lengths third to Give It To Me Oj in the Novices' Championship Final at Sandown in April. 

On his blog the handler hints the gelding doesn't always find what might be expected at the business end of a race but there still looks plenty of mileage in a hurdle mark of 116 compared to his Flat rating and Freddie Keighley takes off seven pounds.

After winning a novice maiden hurdle at Warwick in May, the Harry Fry trained High Fibre has been racing over two and a half miles. 

He finished a (remote) fifth behind Don Virginia in the Fixed Brush Hurdle Series Final at Worcester five weeks ago. I was at the track that day - racing from the front Don Virginia blew apart what looked on paper a very competitive field, a race in which hold up runners had no chance. The gelding steps back down in trip here; connections will hope first-time cheekpieces help the cause.

Maasai Mara races from one pound out of the handicap and is one of only three in the field without a recent run to their name.

Afadil and the mare Ooh Betty are the other two runners making their seasonal debut.

Mr Nicholls thinks Afadil, stablemate of Fasol, will come on for the run. 

Ooh Betty won first time out at Sandown last November and led to the final flight before finishing third behind Take No Chances (contests Grade 2 West Yorkshire Hurdle 2.20 Wetherby tomorrow) and Kargese over course and distance in the Grade 2 Warfield Mares' Hurdle in January. That form reads well and Toby McCain-Mitchell claims five pounds.

Dance And Glance was sent off 5/1favourite for the Swinton at Haydock in May, eventually finishing fifth behind Our Champ. He looked to have Manuelito in his sights a fortnight ago at Newton Abbot but a bad mistake two out effectively cost him his winning chance. 

Washington, fifth in this race in 2022 when trained by Olly Murphy, has won three of his five starts since the move to Harry Dereham's yard 12 months ago. 

Last time the gelding held Moveit Like Minnie at Chepstow - the pair 40 lengths clear - but team Twiston-Davies will fancy their chance off 118 with five pound claimer James Turner replacing Tom Bellamy in the plate. 

Moveit Like Minnie was beaten less than three lengths behind Luccia, Impose Toi and Altobelli over course and distance off a mark of 124 in the 2023 running of the Betfair Exchange Trophy (once known as the Ladbrokes).

Top weight No Ordinary Joe contested the last three Martin Pipe Hurdles at the Cheltenham Festival when trained by Nicky Henderson, finding only Iroko too good in the 2023 renewal. He looks to face a stiff task on his second start for Faye Bramley. 

I'm haunted by the spectre of Michelle Keegan recently informing TV viewers the latest Sky / Netflix deal represents 'handsomely good value'; I've struggled to find a bookmaker offering anything like that in this race - am I under a spell?

At various junctures since final declarations, I've thought Indemnity, Fasol, Ooh Betty, Moveit Like Minnie - only to see the price disappear, ghost-like, before my eyes.

More likely a trick than a treat but I'm hoping a mark of 113 underestimates High Fibre's abilities. This is just his third start in a handicap - the last run at Worcester is ignored. The stable has fired in two winners from seven runners over the past fortnight.

High Fibre is the each-way suggestion, currently 20/1 with Sky and Paddy Power, both paying four places.

Hoping to come on for the run...

Where to start? Well, spiders started coming into the house in the middle of August this year - that looks early in my book.

England manager Thomas Tuchel had a bit of a dig at the fans for their lack of support following last night's comfortable victory over Wales in a friendly at Wembley. 

Previously, after England's 2-0 victory over Andorra at the beginning of September, Martin Samuel wrote in The Times that 'Thomas Tuchel is selecting on form that is seven years out of date'. That line struck me like a bolt out of the blue: for years I've been doing something very similar - and I immediately experienced something of a personal epiphany.

After such a startling shock, I dashed straight under the stairs - a damp, dingy, festering space that I've used as a refuge in times of distress ever since the shed started to leak - and began to make the sort of technical adjustments to the selection processes that, in the long run, are unlikely to make any material difference whatsoever; readers hoping to see an improvement in the performance of the blog's highlighted runners should bear in mind the age old adage: old habits die hard.

Here's a salient case in point from Worcester's Fixed Brush Series Final card at the end of September.

Things had started off well enough on the day: minimal travel expenses incurred thanks to the Older Person's bus pass - used on the railway; concessionary course admission for £18.50; and then a kindly gent in the queue offered me a token for a free racecard. 

It went quickly downhill thereafter.

In the feature I preferred Knights Affair to Don Virginia, having watched a replay of their meeting over an extended trip at Stratford several times the night before. Don Virginia blew away what looked on paper a competitive field to win 17 lengths, with Knights Affair a further 20 lengths adrift in seventh.

Then Sir Hobnob took the biscuit by running green in the two and a half mile maiden hurdle.

After the Fixed Brush Hurdle Final, winning jockey Richie McLernon said:

"I was second on him at Hereford and thought he was a bit questionable then, but they held off for this and, fair play, it's paid off. They've [first-time cheekpieces] made a massive difference."

Paul Nicholls was slightly more helpful when he told Racing Post readers he doesn't have the ammo for a tilt at this year's trainers' title - he thinks Dan Skelton a bit of a shoo-in - but Martin Pipe's record of 3,930 winners is certainly within range.

Plenty thought Skelton a bit of a shoo-in last season but they hadn't counted on the the late run of Mr W.P.Mullins - for a second consecutive year. The Irish maestro clearly has his eye on the hat-trick with early season targets already pencilled in for Il Etait Temps (Tingle Creek); Fact To File and Gaelic Warrior (King George); and Anzadam (Fighting Fifth).

Mr David Maxwell hung up his riding boots over the summer - the David Maxwell dispersal sale takes place after racing at Cheltenham on Friday October 24th. 

The man himself told punters to 'lump on' Queensbury Boy in the Persian War Hurdle at Chepstow but earlier this afternoon the gelding could only finish fourth behind Sticktotheplan who, in a first-time hood, successfully conceded weight to all his rivals. Mr Maxwell's thoughts on one or two other key horses in the sale are here. 

Cheers for Chepstow's inaugural three-day Welsh Racing Festival which sees the Welsh Champion Hurdle (3.17 Sunday) return to the track for the first time since 2002. Earlier today the going on the hurdle track was changed from good to soft to good after the first race and on the chase track from good to good to firm, good in places after the third race.

On Monday, on his first ride since suffering spinal and neck injuries at Plumpton on Easter Monday, Nico De Boinville made all aboard The Expensive One to win the novices' handicap hurdle at Stratford. After that race the jockey said he was likely to 'come on for the run' and the same comment can be applied to the author of what follows.

Two chasers on the radar tomorrow:

Deep Cave makes his debut over British fences (2.45 Chepstow). 

After winning the opening handicap hurdle at Aintree on Grand National day, trainer Christian Williams said of Deep Cave:

"It's probably taken us a long time to figure him out, but we thought he'd be better on nice ground and he's going to be very special over fences next year. He won a novice chase in France, so he's not a novice, but hopefully he'll be a Saturday horse."

King Of Answers makes his chase debut (3.45 Hexham).

Back in May 2023 King Of Answers was beaten under two lengths by Wendigo in an Irish maiden point. Wendigo subsequently finished second behind The New Lion in the Challow at Newbury before finishing fifth in the Albert Bartlett behind Jasmin De Vaux. 

Finally, I realise I'm wandering off-piste but jumps trainers have a decent recent record in the Cesarewitch (3.40 Newmarket) - they have collected the spoils in nine of the past 12 renewals - and Ndaawi catches my eye. 

Gordon Elliott's charge, sent off a 7/1 chance for last year's renewal (Jamie Spencer up), finished stone cold last on soft ground, beaten 134 lengths off a mark of 92. After that race the trainer's representative reported the gelding did not stay the trip of 2m 2f on this occasion. 

Next time out, back over the sticks, he finished second to Kargese in the County Hurdle at Cheltenham (run over 2m 1f on the stiffer New Course on good to soft) and was then awarded the Galway Hurdle (2m, good) in the stewards' room at the beginning of August.

He lost two places when coming under pressure in the closing stages on the Flat at Chester last month (2m, good to soft, Cieren Fallon up) and connections have opted to fit first-time cheekpieces tomorrow. Cieren Fallon keeps the ride while Jamie Spencer is aboard stablemate Mordor.

His seventh in the 2024 Ascot Stakes (2m 4f good to firm) suggests this trip is within his compass on quick ground; a hurdle mark of 154 indicates there could be some leeway off a Flat mark of 89.

Ndaawi is a tentative each-way suggestion, 20/1 with Coral and William Hill at the time of writing, both paying five places.